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The Evaluation of Economic Recession Magnitude: Introduction and Application

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  • Jiří Mazurek
  • Elena Mielcová

Abstract

We propose a new quantitative recession magnitude scale for measuring recessions´ magnitudes (´strength´) derived from GDP growth rates during a recession and its duration. Furthermore, we introduce a qualitative scale with four recession categories: minor, major, severe and ultra, where the categories are defined by the magnitude scale. We use both scales to evaluate several well known economic recessions of the 20th and the 21st centuries. We have found that the Great Depression in 1929-1933 and recessions in Russia and Ukraine in the 1990s belong to ultra recessions, while the recent 2007-2009 fi nancial crisis falls mainly into major (EU and Japan) and severe (USA) category.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 2013 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 182-205

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Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2013:y:2013:i:2:id:447:p:182-205

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Related research

Keywords: business cycle; financial crisis; recession; recession classification; recession magnitude;

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References

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  1. Kim, C-J & Nelson, C-R, 1997. "Friedman's Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations : Tests and Estimates of Permanent and Transitory Components," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 97-06, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  2. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
  3. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "This is what the leading indicators lead," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80.
  4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  5. Arthur F. Burns, 1958. "The Current Business Recession," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31, pages 145.
  6. Raffaele Miniaci & Guglielmo Weber, 1996. "The Italian recession of 1993: Aggregate implications of microeconomic evidence," IFS Working Papers W96/09, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  7. Charles S. Gascon, 2009. "The current recession: how bad is it?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jiří, Mazurek, 2012. "On some issues concerning definition of an economic recession," MPRA Paper 43381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Mazurek, Jiří, 2014. "The evaluation of recession magnitudes in EU countries during the global financial crisis 2008-2010," MPRA Paper 56451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Jiri Mazurek, 2014. "Examination of European Union economic cohesion: A cluster analysis approach," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 9(4), pages 8-17, January.
  4. Mazurek, Jiří, 2013. "The Great Recession: a comparison of recession magnitudes in Europe, USA and Japan," MPRA Paper 51428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Mazurek, Jiri, 2013. "A Comparison of GDP growth of European countries during 2008-2012 period from regional and other perspectives," MPRA Paper 51178, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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