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The Italian Recession Of 1993: Aggregate Implications Of Microeconomic Evidence

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Raffaele Miniaci
Guglielmo Weber

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Abstract

We use household-level data covering a ten-year period (1984 to 1993) to investigate the likely determinants of the Italian recession of 1993, the first year after WWII when private consumption fell. Consumption fell most for working-age households and for the self-employed. Our evidence is consistent with the response to permanent negative shocks due to the major pension reform of 1992 and the introduction of stricter tax-compliance measures for the self-employed. This is still true when we control for the role played by job losses and the collapse of the retail sector that characterized the early 1990s. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 81 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 237-249
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:2:p:237-249

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  1. Francesco Zollino, 2001. "Personal Saving and Social Security in Italy: Fresh Evidence from a Time Series Analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 417, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasting: Debunking a few old wives' tales," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 395, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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