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Markets, Herding and Response to External Information

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  • Adrián Carro
  • Raúl Toral
  • Maxi San Miguel

Abstract

We focus on the influence of external sources of information upon financial markets. In particular, we develop a stochastic agent-based market model characterized by a certain herding behavior as well as allowing traders to be influenced by an external dynamic signal of information. This signal can be interpreted as a time-varying advertising, public perception or rumor, in favor or against one of two possible trading behaviors, thus breaking the symmetry of the system and acting as a continuously varying exogenous shock. As an illustration, we use a well-known German Indicator of Economic Sentiment as information input and compare our results with Germany’s leading stock market index, the DAX, in order to calibrate some of the model parameters. We study the conditions for the ensemble of agents to more accurately follow the information input signal. The response of the system to the external information is maximal for an intermediate range of values of a market parameter, suggesting the existence of three different market regimes: amplification, precise assimilation and undervaluation of incoming information.

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  • Adrián Carro & Raúl Toral & Maxi San Miguel, 2015. "Markets, Herding and Response to External Information," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-28, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0133287
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0133287
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    5. Kirill S. Glavatskiy & Mikhail Prokopenko & Adrian Carro & Paul Ormerod & Michael Harré, 2021. "Explaining herding and volatility in the cyclical price dynamics of urban housing markets using a large-scale agent-based model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-21, June.
    6. Gardini, L. & Radi, D. & Schmitt, N. & Sushko, I. & Westerhoff, F., 2022. "Causes of fragile stock market stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 483-498.
    7. Adri'an Carro & Ra'ul Toral & Maxi San Miguel, 2016. "The noisy voter model on complex networks," Papers 1602.06935, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    8. Vygintas Gontis & Aleksejus Kononovicius, 2017. "Spurious memory in non-equilibrium stochastic models of imitative behavior," Papers 1707.09801, arXiv.org.
    9. Peralta, Antonio F. & Khalil, Nagi & Toral, Raúl, 2020. "Ordering dynamics in the voter model with aging," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 552(C).
    10. Dimitri Kroujiline & Maxim Gusev & Dmitry Ushanov & Sergey V. Sharov & Boris Govorkov, 2016. "Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1695-1712, November.
    11. Kroujiline, Dimitri & Gusev, Maxim & Ushanov, Dmitry & Sharov, Sergey V. & Govorkov, Boris, 2015. "Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons," MPRA Paper 66175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Khalil, Nagi & Toral, Raúl, 2019. "The noisy voter model under the influence of contrarians," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 515(C), pages 81-92.

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