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Export Diversification and the Structural Dynamics in the Growth Process: The Case of Pakistan

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  • Mohammad Akbar

    (Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi.)

  • Sabahat Zareen F. Naqvi

    (World Bank, Islamabad.)

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    Abstract

    In the present paper we have tried to examine Pakistan’s experience with exports and growth by constructing several measures of diversification and structural change in Pakistan’s exports from a dis-aggregated data over a period of 27 years (1972-73 to 1997-98). Then using these measures we have tested a number of relationships among the structure of exports, export growth, aggregate growth, and world growth. By looking at the evolution and structural change of exports by sectors over the long run, we find a number of interesting results. First, the degree of export diversification increased sharply from 1979 and continued till 1985. After 1985, and with the return of the democracy in the country. There was a marked reduction in the export diversification and it went back to pre-1979 level. Secondly, a crude association of ‘traditionality’ with primary products and ‘non-traditionality’ with manufactured exports fails to represent Pakistan’s experience. As Pakistan emerged from an import substitution period into a period of structural change and free trade, its true comparative advantage was more visibly expressed, thus some manufactured exports declined while some primary products grew. Third, the shortrun dynamics of diversification and structural change show a marked pattern. Most change in the composition of exports has taken place during periods of boom in the domestic economy but when the world economy was experiencing a relatively recessionary period.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 573-589

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    Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:4:p:573-589

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Marin, Dalia, 1992. "Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," Munich Reprints in Economics 3112, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Riezman, R. & Whiteman, C. & Summers, P.M., 1995. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Working Papers 95-16, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
    3. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1988. "Export-Promoting Trade Strategy: Issues and Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 3(1), pages 27-57, January.
    4. Amin Gutierrez de Pineres, Sheila & Ferrantino, Michael, 1997. "Export diversification and structural dynamics in the growth process: The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 375-391, April.
    5. Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Export growth and Canadian economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 133-145, January.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2004. "Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 563-581.
    2. Syed Raza & Syed Jawaid, 2014. "Foreign capital inflows, economic growth and stock market capitalization in Asian countries: an ARDL bound testing approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 375-385, January.
    3. Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Shaista Alam & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 715-723.
    4. Chaudhry, Azam & Bukhari, Syed Kalim Hyder, 2013. "A structural VAR analysis of the impact of macroeconomic shocks on Pakistan's textile exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 302-315.
    5. Matthew McCartney, 2011. "Pakistan, Growth, Dependency, and Crisis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 71-94, September.

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