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Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options

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  • George M. Constantinides
  • Jens Carsten Jackwerth
  • Stylianos Perrakis

Abstract

Widespread violations of stochastic dominance by 1-month S&P 500 index call options over 1986--2006 imply that a trader can improve expected utility by engaging in a zero-net-cost trade net of transaction costs and bid-ask spread. Although precrash option prices conform to the Black-Scholes-Merton model reasonably well, they are incorrectly priced if the distribution of the index return is estimated from time-series data. Substantial violations by postcrash OTM calls contradict the notion that the problem lies primarily with the left-hand tail of the index return distribution and that the smile is too steep. The decrease in violations over the postcrash period of 1988--1995 is followed by a substantial increase over 1997--2006, which may be due to the lower quality of the data but, in any case, does not provide evidence that the options market is becoming more rational over time. The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 22 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 1247-1277

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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:22:y:2009:i:3:p:1247-1277

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References

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  1. Bernard Bensaid & Jean-Philippe Lesne & Henri Pagès & José Scheinkman, 1992. "Derivative Asset Pricing With Transaction Costs," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 63-86.
  2. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 2000. "Nonparametric Risk Management and Implied Risk Aversion," NBER Working Papers 6130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, . "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 332, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  4. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2004. "Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 711-753, 04.
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Cited by:
  1. Garleanu, Nicolae Bogdan & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Poteshman, Allen M, 2005. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 5420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Urcola, Hernan A. & Irwin, Scott H., 2011. "Are Agricultural Options Overpriced?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), April.
  3. Pierre Azoulay & Joshua S. Graff Zivin & Bhaven N. Sampat, 2011. "The Diffusion of Scientific Knowledge Across Time and Space: Evidence from Professional Transitions for the Superstars of Medicine," NBER Working Papers 16683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Peters, R. & van der Weide, R., 2012. "Volatility: Expectations and Realizations," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  5. George M. Constantinides & Michal Czerwonko & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2011. "Are Options on Index Futures Profitable for Risk‐Averse Investors? Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1407-1437, 08.
  6. Wolfgang Härdle & Volker Krätschmer & Rouslan Moro, 2009. "A Microeconomic Explanation of the EPK Paradox," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-010, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2007. "Option Pricing: Real and Risk-Neutral Distributions," MPRA Paper 11637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Luca Regis & Simone Scotti, 2008. "Risk Premium Impact in the Perturbative Black Scholes Model," Papers 0806.0307, arXiv.org.
  9. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Michael W. Brandt & Ralph S.J. Koijen, . "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 11-13, Swiss Finance Institute.
  10. Perrakis, Stylianos & Boloorforoosh, Ali, 2013. "Valuing catastrophe derivatives under limited diversification: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3157-3168.
  11. Beare, Brendan K. & Schmidt, Lawrence, 2011. "An Empirical Test of Pricing Kernel Monotonicity," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5572n8pc, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  12. Alfredo Ibáñez, 2008. "The cross-section of average delta-hedge option returns under stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 205-244, October.

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