National elections, sub-national growth: the politics of Turkey’s provincial economic dynamics under AKP rule[Shift-share designs: theory and inference]

Despite a large body of work on the impacts of institutions on subnational growth and development, economic geographers have, in the last decades, frequently overlooked the role of politics and, in particular, that of national political economies. Drawing on the political science literature, the article argues that studying national political dynamics is still key to understand the cumulative process of uneven regional development. Using data from Turkey over the period 2004–2016, the article shows how national electoral politics and government actions have significantly affected provincial growth patterns. The impact is substantive and increases in election years. Results also suggest that the central government may have influenced sub-national growth trajectories in different ways, including boosting the construction sector and expanding public employment.