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Implications of the Doha Round negotiations in services for Poland

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Abstract

Using a computable general equilibrium model we assess the effects of services trade liberalization in Poland and its major trading partners in the context of the WTO Doha Round negotiations and the ongoing process of trade liberalization within the enlarged European Union. The paper provides a thorough descriptive analysis of the data on trade in services. It gives a complete picture of the sectoral and geographical structure of Poland’s trade in services in 2007. We also provide an analysis of revealed comparative advantage indices based on sectoral data. The review of literature is focused on a discussion of the methodology for assessing the barriers to trade in services. The core of the paper consists of a CGE simulation using the GTAP model. We employ the Hoekman (1995) tariff equivalents as a proxy for the initial level of trade barriers. Our four scenarios include those of complete liberalization, EU-only liberalization and two intermediate scenarios. The most optimistic scenario is expected to bring a 0.9% increase in Polish GDP and welfare improvement of close to 0.8% of GDP value. However, more than half of this gain is attributed to the liberalization within the EU that is bound to happen independently from the Doha process.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Hagemejer & Jan Michałek & Tomasz Michałek, 2010. "Implications of the Doha Round negotiations in services for Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 41(1), pages 5-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:41:y:2010:i:1:p:5-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hoekman, Bernard, 2006. "Trade in Services, Trade Agreements and Economic Development: A Survey of the Literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 5760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. McDougall, Robert, 2000. "A New Regional Household Demand System for GTAP," GTAP Working Papers 404, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. John Whalley, 2004. "Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1223-1253, August.
    4. Keith Walsh, 2006. "Trade in Services: Does Gravity Hold? A Gravity Model Approach to Estimating Barriers to Services Trade," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp183, IIIS.
    5. Mattoo, Aaditya & Javorcik, Beata & Arnold, Jens, 2006. "Does Services Liberalization Benefit Manufacturing Firms?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Peter Egger & Rainer Lanz, 2008. "The Determinants of GATS Commitment Coverage," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1666-1694, December.
    7. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    8. McDougall, Robert, 2002. "A New Regional Household Demand System For Gtap," Technical Papers 28713, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Arjan Lejour & Henk Kox & Roland de Bruijn, 2006. "The trade-induced effects of the Services Directive and the country of origin principle," CPB Document 108, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Mattoo, Aaditya, 2005. "Services in a development round : three goals and three proposals," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3718, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Łukasz Matuszczak, 2019. "Międzynarodowy handel usługami polskich przedsiębiorstw," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 47-67.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade liberalization; Doha Round; computable general equilibrium modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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