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Trade in Services: Does Gravity Hold? A Gravity Model Approach to Estimating Barriers to Services Trade

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Keith Walsh

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Abstract

This paper assesses the determinants of trade in services using a gravity model, with particular attention given to the role of barriers to services trade. Initially, the application of the gravity equation to services trade is examined. A variety of econometric estimators are tested and the Hausman-Taylor model is found to be the best estimator. The gravity model fits services trade flows in a similar manner to trade in goods. Wealth of countries and a common language are the most important determinants of services trade, distance is generally found to be insignificant. A variable measuring barriers to services trade is introduced into the gravity equation. Although the variable is only found to be weakly significant, a quantified set of tariff equivalents of those barriers is estimated.

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp183.

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Date of creation: 16 Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp183

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  1. repec:eab:tradew:353 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Hoekman, Bernard, 1995. "Tentative First Steps: An Assessment of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Services," CEPR Discussion Papers 1150, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Governance matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2196, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Richard Portes & Helene Rey, 1999. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," NBER Working Papers 7336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta & Olivier Boylaud, 2000. "Summary Indicators of Product Market Regulation with an Extension to Employment Protection Legislation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 226, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fitzsimons, E. & Hogan, V. & Neary, J.P., 1999. "Explaining the volume of North-South Trade in Ireland: a Gravity Model Approach," Papers 99/14, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
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  7. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Steve Golub & Dana Hajkova & Daniel Mirza & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2003. "Policies and International Integration: Influences on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 359, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. P. K. M. Tharakan & Ilke Van Beveren & Tom Van Ourti, 2005. "Determinants of India's Software Exports and Goods Exports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 776-780, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Deardoff, A.V., 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," Working Papers 382, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  15. Michael Ferrantino, 2006. "Quantifying the Trade and Economic Effects of Non-Tariff Measures," OECD Trade Policy Working Papers 28, OECD, Trade Directorate. [Downloadable!]
  16. John Whalley, 2004. "Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(8), pages 1223-1253, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Mattoo, Aaditya, 1999. "Financial services and the World Trade Organization - liberalization commitments of the developing and transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2184, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Arjan Lejour & J.W. de Paiva Verheijden, 2004. "Services trade within Canada and the European Union. What do they have in common?," CPB Discussion Papers 42, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  19. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2004. "Distance, trade and FDI: a Hausman-Taylor SUR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 227-246. [Downloadable!]
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  20. repec:fth:michin:382 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Fukunari Kimura & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2006. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 92-121, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Peter Egger, . "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," WIFO Working Papers 141, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 1997. "Measurement of Non-Tariff Barriers," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 179, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  25. Carolina Lennon, 2008. "Trade in services and trade in goods: differences and complementarities," PSE Working Papers 2008-52, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
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  1. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A survey of the assessments of the effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using gravity models," Working Papers 7282, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements. [Downloadable!]
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