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Information content of credit ratings in pricing of future earnings

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  • Ting-Kai Chou

Abstract

This paper examines whether credit ratings convey information about the firm’s future earnings to the capital markets. Using the future earnings response coefficient methodology, we find that the current stock returns of rated firms reflect more future earnings than do the stock returns of non-rated firms. We also find that the market reflect more future earnings in current returns for higher-rated firms. In addition, we present evidence that returns impound future earnings to a greater extent after a ratings initiation or upgrade. We empirically eliminate the possibility that our findings are driven by earnings smoothing, market liquidity or omitted default risk factors associated with ratings. Our results are robust to controlling for potential omitted variables, endogeneity bias, loss versus profit firms, and serial correlation of error terms. Overall, the evidence suggests that credit ratings help disseminate private information to reduce information uncertainty about the firm’s future profitability among market participants. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

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  • Ting-Kai Chou, 2013. "Information content of credit ratings in pricing of future earnings," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 217-250, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:40:y:2013:i:2:p:217-250
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-012-0273-4
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dargenidou, Christina & Jackson, Richard H.G. & Tsalavoutas, Ioannis & Tsoligkas, Fanis, 2021. "Capitalisation of R&D and the informativeness of stock prices: Pre- and post-IFRS evidence," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(4).
    3. Winnie P. H. Poon & Jianfu Shen, 2020. "The roles of rating outlooks: the predictor of creditworthiness and the monitor of recovery efforts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1063-1091, October.
    4. Abad, P. & Ferreras, R. & Robles, M.D., 2020. "Intra-industry transfer effects of credit risk news: Rated versus unrated rivals," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1).
    5. Michael J. Peel, 2014. "Addressing unobserved endogeneity bias in accounting studies: control and sensitivity methods by variable type," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 545-571, October.
    6. Tsalavoutas, Ioannis & Tsoligkas, Fanis, 2021. "Uncertainty avoidance and stock price informativeness of future earnings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Li, Wanli & Lai, Yin & Wang, Chaohui & Tan, Bowen, 2022. "How do emerging debt market participants recognize firm internationalization?Evidence from effects on credit ratings," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit ratings; Future earnings response coefficient (FERC); Stock price informativeness; D80; G14; G24; M41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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