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Are All Rivals Affected Equally by Bond Rating Downgrades?

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Author Info
 Caton, Gary L
Goh, Jeremy
Abstract

We use revisions in analysts' earnings forecasts to examine how the bad news associated with a bond rating downgrade gets transferred from the downgraded company to its rivals. In general, we find that stock analysts revise their earnings expectations downward for rivals of companies with downgraded debt. However, the significance of the revision is limited to rivals of downgraded companies with non-investment grade debt only. For the rivals of companies with investment grade debt, we find no significant forecast revisions. We hypothesize that this differential impact is due to differing levels of market visibility. This is consistent with our finding that downgraded companies with non-investment grade debt are followed by significantly fewer stock analysts. Apparently not all rivals are affected equally by bond rating downgrades. Copyright 2003 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting.

Volume (Year): 20 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 49-62
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:20:y:2003:i:1:p:49-62

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Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=102990

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  1. Maxime Merli & Alain Schatt, 2003. "Contagion effects of successive bond rating downgrades," Working Papers of LaRGE (Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie) 2003-02, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie, Université de Strasbourg (France). [Downloadable!]
  2. Martin Sullivan, 2009. "Credit Ratings and UK Defined Pension Fund Portfolio Values," Discussion Papers 0909, University of the West of England, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fernando Gonzalez & François Haas & Ronald Johannes & Mattias Persson & Liliana Toledo & Roberto Violi & Martin Wieland & Carmen Zins, 2004. "Market dynamics associated with credit ratings - a literature review," Occasional Paper Series 16, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Maxime Merli & Alain Schatt, 2007. "Are there contagion or competition effects for non rated firms?The case of successive bond rating downgrades of Alcatel," Working Papers FARGO 1070603, Université de Bourgogne - Latec/Fargo (Research center in Finance,organizational ARchitecture and GOvernance). [Downloadable!]
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