IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/revdev/v19y2016i2d10.1007_s11147-015-9118-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Option pricing model with sentiment

Author

Listed:
  • Chunpeng Yang

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Bin Gao

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Jianlei Yang

    (Hebei University of Technology)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a closed-form option pricing model with the stock sentiment and option sentiment. First, the model shows that the price of call option is amplified by bullish stock sentiment, and is reduced by stock bearish sentiment, and the price of put option is in the opposite situation. Second, the price of call option is more sensitive to bullish stock sentiment; the price of put option is more sensitive to bearish stock sentiment. Third, the price of call option increases substantially with respect to the stock sentiment and the option sentiment. The price of put option decreases substantially with respect to the stock sentiment, increases substantially with respect to the option sentiment. Fourth, our models also reveal that the option volatility smile is steeper (flatter) when the stock sentiment becomes more bearish (bullish). Finally, stock sentiment and option sentiment lead to the option price deviating from the rational price. The model could offer a partial explanation of some option anomalies: option price bubbles and option volatility smile.

Suggested Citation

  • Chunpeng Yang & Bin Gao & Jianlei Yang, 2016. "Option pricing model with sentiment," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 147-164, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:19:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11147-015-9118-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11147-015-9118-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11147-015-9118-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11147-015-9118-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang, Chunpeng & Gao, Bin, 2014. "The term structure of sentiment effect in stock index futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 171-182.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    3. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2014. "A closed-form solution for options with ambiguity about stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 125-159, July.
    4. Thaler, Richard, 1981. "Some empirical evidence on dynamic inconsistency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 201-207.
    5. Josef Lakonishok & Inmoo Lee & Neil D. Pearson & Allen M. Poteshman, 2007. "Option Market Activity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 813-857.
    6. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    7. Steven A. Sharpe, 2002. "Reexamining Stock Valuation and Inflation: The Implications Of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 632-648, November.
    8. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. "Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
    9. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2004. "Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 711-753, April.
    10. Her-Jiun Sheu & Yu-Chen Wei, 2011. "Options Trading Based on the Forecasting of Volatility Direction with the Incorporation of Investor Sentiment," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 31-47, March.
    11. Yang, Chunpeng & Li, Jinfang, 2013. "Investor sentiment, information and asset pricing model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 436-442.
    12. Bauer, Rob & Cosemans, Mathijs & Eichholtz, Piet, 2009. "Option trading and individual investor performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 731-746, April.
    13. Guo, Zhidong & Yuan, Hongjun, 2014. "Pricing European option under the time-changed mixed Brownian-fractional Brownian model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 406(C), pages 73-79.
    14. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
    15. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2009. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1247-1277.
    16. Bing Han, 2008. "Investor Sentiment and Option Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 387-414, January.
    17. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    18. Allen M. Poteshman, 2001. "Underreaction, Overreaction, and Increasing Misreaction to Information in the Options Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 851-876, June.
    19. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-451.
    20. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2011. "Thinking by analogy, systematic risk, and option prices," MPRA Paper 31316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Mahani, Reza S. & Poteshman, Allen M., 2008. "Overreaction to stock market news and misevaluation of stock prices by unsophisticated investors: Evidence from the option market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 635-655, September.
    22. Allen M. Poteshman & Vitaly Serbin, 2003. "Clearly Irrational Financial Market Behavior: Evidence from the Early Exercise of Exchange Traded Stock Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 37-70, February.
    23. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May.
    24. Saul Pleeter & John T. Warner, 2001. "The Personal Discount Rate: Evidence from Military Downsizing Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 33-53, March.
    25. Bick, Avi, 1987. "On the Consistency of the Black-Scholes Model with a General Equilibrium Framework," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 259-275, September.
    26. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    27. Yang, Chunpeng & Li, Jinfang, 2014. "Two-period trading sentiment asset pricing model with information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-7.
    28. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    29. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    30. He, Hua & Leland, Hayne, 1993. "On Equilibrium Asset Price Processes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 593-617.
    31. Yang, Chunpeng & Zhang, Rengui, 2013. "Sentiment asset pricing model with consumption," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 462-467.
    32. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zghal, Imen & Ben Hamad, Salah & Eleuch, Hichem & Nobanee, Haitham, 2020. "The effect of market sentiment and information asymmetry on option pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Ryu, Doojin & Ryu, Doowon & Yang, Heejin, 2023. "Whose sentiment explains implied volatility change and smile?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zghal, Imen & Ben Hamad, Salah & Eleuch, Hichem & Nobanee, Haitham, 2020. "The effect of market sentiment and information asymmetry on option pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Chin‐Ho Chen, 2021. "Investor sentiment, misreaction, and the skewness‐return relationship," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1427-1455, September.
    3. Michael Lemmon & Sophie Xiaoyan Ni, 2014. "Differences in Trading and Pricing Between Stock and Index Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(8), pages 1985-2001, August.
    4. Seo, Sung Won & Kim, Jun Sik, 2015. "The information content of option-implied information for volatility forecasting with investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-120.
    5. Han, Bin, 2004. "Limits of Arbitrage, Sentiment and Pricing Kernal: Evidences from Index Options," Working Paper Series 2004-2, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    6. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    7. Gao, Bin & Xie, Jun & Jia, Yun, 2019. "A futures pricing model with long-term and short-term traders," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 9-28.
    8. Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2021. "Estimating real‐world probabilities: A forward‐looking behavioral framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1797-1823, November.
    9. Li, Jinfang, 2014. "Multi-period sentiment asset pricing model with information," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 118-130.
    10. Li, Jinfang, 2022. "The sentiment pricing dynamics with short-term and long-term learning," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2014. "Investor Sentiment, Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 531-577, September.
    12. Yang, Chunpeng & Gao, Bin, 2014. "The term structure of sentiment effect in stock index futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 171-182.
    13. Li, Jinfang, 2017. "Investor sentiment, heterogeneous agents and asset pricing model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 504-512.
    14. Li, Jinfang, 2019. "Sentiment trading, informed trading and dynamic asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 210-222.
    15. Byun, Suk-Joon & Kim, Da-Hea, 2016. "Gambling preference and individual equity option returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 155-174.
    16. Bauer, Rob & Cosemans, Mathijs & Eichholtz, Piet, 2009. "Option trading and individual investor performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 731-746, April.
    17. Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Allen M. Poteshman, 2009. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4259-4299, October.
    18. Gao, Lin & Süss, Stephan, 2015. "Market sentiment in commodity futures returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 84-103.
    19. Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "Returns of claims on the upside and the viability of U-shaped pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-154, July.
    20. Zhou, Liyun & Yang, Chunpeng, 2019. "Stochastic investor sentiment, crowdedness and deviation of asset prices from fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 130-140.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock sentiment; Option sentiment; Option pricing model; Option price bubbles; Option volatility smile;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:19:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11147-015-9118-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.