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Thinking by analogy, systematic risk, and option prices

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  • Siddiqi, Hammad

Abstract

People tend to think by analogies and comparisons. Such way of thinking, termed coarse thinking by Mullainathan et al [Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2008] is intuitively very appealing. We develop a new option pricing model based on the idea that the market consists of coarse thinkers as well as rational investors when limits to arbitrage (transaction costs) prevent rational investors from profiting at the expense of coarse thinkers. The new formula, which is a closed form solution to the model, is a generalization of the Black-Scholes formula. The new formula potentially provides a unified explanation for various implied volatility puzzles.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 31316.

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Date of creation: 07 Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31316

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Keywords: Coarse Thinking; Option Pricing; Implied Volatility; Implied Volatility Skew; Systematic Risk; Investor Sentiment; Implied Volatility Term Structure;

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  1. Bossaerts, Peter & Plott, Charles R., 2000. "Basic Principles of Asset Pricing Theory: Evidence From Large-Scale Experimental Financial Markets," Working Papers 1070, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  2. Lustig, Hanno & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2012. "Business cycle variation in the risk-return trade-off," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages S35-S49.
  3. Brian D. Kluger & Steve B. Wyatt, 2004. "Are Judgment Errors Reflected in Market Prices and Allocations? Experimental Evidence Based on the Monty Hall Problem," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 969-998, 06.
  4. Amin, Kaushik I, 1993. " Jump Diffusion Option Valuation in Discrete Time," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1833-63, December.
  5. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2009. "Does Coarse Thinking Matter for Option Pricing? Evidence from an Experiment," MPRA Paper 13515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32.
  7. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
  9. Rockenbach, Bettina, 2004. "The behavioral relevance of mental accounting for the pricing of financial options," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 513-527, April.
  10. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2004. "Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 711-753, 04.
  11. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43.
  12. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
  13. Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985. " On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-73, March.
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