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The Probability of Teenage Parenthood: Parental Predictions and Their Accuracy

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  • P. Wesley Routon

    (Georgia Gwinnett College)

Abstract

Teenage parenthood is an often-discussed topic in family economics since it has been shown to affect many outcomes for the teen, child, and household. Using a nationally representative longitudinal panel of American teenagers and their parents, two questions related to the probability of teenage parenthood are examined. First, how do predictions of this occurrence made by the teenager’s parents vary across the population? Second, how does the accuracy of these predictions vary? The actual prevalence and variance of teenage parenthood are also examined, and the determinants of its occurrence are estimated. Among other results, expectations and their accuracy are found to differ substantially across socioeconomic status and some demographics such as race and religion. The average American parent underestimates the probability their child will become a teen parent by only a small amount, but within certain demographic groups this outcome is considerably underestimated, and in others it is overestimated. These differences help explain the variability in teen parenthood effects, and more broadly, the analysis serves as a test of parents’ ability to judge their childrens’ future outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Wesley Routon, 2018. "The Probability of Teenage Parenthood: Parental Predictions and Their Accuracy," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 647-661, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfamec:v:39:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10834-018-9583-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10834-018-9583-6
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    1. Heather H. Kelley & Ashley B. LeBaron & E. Jeffrey Hill, 2021. "Family Matters: Decade Review from Journal of Family and Economic Issues," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 20-33, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Teenage parenthood; Teen parenthood; Parental expectations; Prediction accuracy; Teenage pregnancy; Teen pregnancy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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