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Estimation of the greenhouse gas externality with uncertainty

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  • Michael Schauer

Abstract

The shadow price of carbon dioxide is the value of the external damage caused by an emission. A shadow price model for calculating the present value of the external damage of a carbon dioxide emission is derived explicitly. Sixteen experts provided subjective high, low and most likely parameter estimates because correct values for the eight model parameters are uncertain. The estimation procedure retains parameter uncertainty while generating the main result, which is a distribution of shadow price estimates. Major assumptions made in the estimation identify the basis for the results. Of the eight model parameters, the discount rate dominates the determination of the shadow price. For comparison, expert estimates of the shadow price itself provide a second distribution of shadow price estimates. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1995

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Schauer, 1995. "Estimation of the greenhouse gas externality with uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(1), pages 71-82, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:5:y:1995:i:1:p:71-82
    DOI: 10.1007/BF00691910
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    1. Peter Hoeller & Markku Wallin, 1991. "Energy Prices, Taxes and Carbon Dioxide Emissions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 106, OECD Publishing.
    2. William D. Nordhaus, 1980. "Thinking About Carbon Dioxide: Theoretical and Empirical Aspects of Optimal Control Strategies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 565, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    1. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2015. "Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 394-406.
    2. Howard, Peter H. & Sterner, Thomas, 2022. "Between Two Worlds: Methodological and Subjective Differences in Climate Impact Meta-Analyses," RFF Working Paper Series 22-10, Resources for the Future.
    3. Moritz A. Drupp & Frikk Nesje & Robert C. Schmidt, 2022. "Pricing Carbon," CESifo Working Paper Series 9608, CESifo.
    4. Peter Harrison Howard & Derek Sylvan, 2020. "Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 213-232, September.
    5. Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-22.
    6. Tol, Richard S. J., 2005. "The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2064-2074, November.
    7. Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.
    8. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    9. Howard, Peter H. & Sylvan, Derek, 2015. "The Economic Climate: Establishing Consensus on the Economics of Climate Change," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205761, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Hennlock, Magnus, 2009. "Robust Control in Global Warming Management: An Analytical Dynamic Integrated Assessment," Working Papers in Economics 354, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    11. Howard, Peter H. & Derek, Sylvan, 2016. "The Wisdom of the Economic Crowd: Calibrating Integrated Assessment Models Using Consensus," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Oleg Eismont & Heinz Welsch, 1996. "Optimal greenhouse gas emissions under various assessments of climate change ambiguity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 8(2), pages 129-140, September.
    13. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    14. Ziwei Yan & Chunying Cui, 2022. "How Natural Gas Infrastructure Affects Carbon Emission Indicators in Guangdong Province?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-26, July.
    15. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    16. Jung A Lee & Jinhyung Chon & Changwoo Ahn, 2014. "Planning Landscape Corridors in Ecological Infrastructure Using Least-Cost Path Methods Based on the Value of Ecosystem Services," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-22, October.
    17. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time," Papers 2105.03656, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.

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