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Asset Price Dynamics When Behavioural Heterogeneity Varies

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  • Domenico Colucci
  • Vincenzo Valori

    ()

Abstract

We build a model in which asset prices are expectationally driven and agents forecast future prices hinging on a combination of fundamental value, trend and inertia. The model has a unique steady state and we investigate its stability. In particular the amount of behavioural heterogeneity in the model is given by the number of intermediaries actually operating in the market: we are concerned with the effects that changing such number produces on the steady state in terms of stability. Assuming that the set of relevant intermediaries is sampled randomly we discuss the probability of having stability as a function of the market's parameters and the number of such agents. Our simulations show that stability in the multi-agent setting does not require that conditions for stability in the representative agent case be met for every individual; so stability can arise even if some of the agents would not be compatible with it if they were the only ones operating in the market. The same goes for instability. Further, we find that stabilising (or destabilising) effects of heterogeneity are not uniform across the market's essential characteristics, as captured by a given structural parameter: in fact we can identify a parametric region in which heterogeneity is stabilising and another in which it is destabilising.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10614-008-9129-3
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Computational Economics in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 3-20

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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:32:y:2008:i:1:p:3-20

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100248
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Related research

Keywords: Heterogeneous agents; Expectations; Stock market; Behavioural finance; Bounded rationality; Middlemen; G12; D84;

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References

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  1. Fingleton, John, 1997. "Competition among Middlemen When Buyers and Sellers Can Trade Directly," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 405-27, December.
  2. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  3. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. " On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-48, May.
  4. Alok Johri & Lohn Leach, 2000. "Middlemen and the Allocation of Heterogeneous Goods," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-06, McMaster University.
  5. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Towards an Explanation of Household Portfolio Choice Heterogeneity: Nonfinancial Income and Participation Cost Structures," NBER Working Papers 8884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  7. John Rust & George Hall, 2003. "Middlemen versus Market Makers: A Theory of Competitive Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 353-403, April.
  8. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
  9. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2003. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-010/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. Elliott, Graham & Ito, Takatoshi, 1999. "Heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen/dollar forward exchange rate market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 435-456, April.
  11. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2005. "Ways of learning in a simple economic setting: a comparison," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2005-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  12. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Inertia of Forward-Looking Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 152-157, May.
  13. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
  14. Egenter, E. & Lux, T. & Stauffer, D., 1999. "Finite-size effects in Monte Carlo simulations of two stock market models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 268(1), pages 250-256.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Colucci, Domenico & Valori, Vincenzo, 2011. "Adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena: Does heterogeneity matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1307-1321, August.
  2. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2012. "Bounded rationality and parameters’ uncertainty in a simple monetary policy model," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2012-03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.

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