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Forecasting Sales and Price for Existing Single-Family Homes: A VAR Model with Error Correction

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    Abstract

    In this paper we forecast demand for existing single-family housing in the United States. We first find that sales volume (sales) and median sales price (price) have unit roots. We then find that sales and price are cointegrated. We develop a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with error correction to further examine the causality between sales and price. We find that there exists a bidirectional causality relationship between sales and price. Price affects sales significantly and sales affects price weakly. With the VAR model we then forecast sales and price for existing single-family housing during the period 1991 to 1994 by using a recursive method. We find that our predictions for sales and price fit the actual data well.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol14n02/v14p155.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 14 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 155-168

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:14:n:2:1997:p:155-168

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    1. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
    4. Paul R. Goebel & Christopher K. Ma, 1993. "The Integration of Mortgage Markets and Capital Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 511-538.
    5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Andre H. Gao & George H. K. Wang, 2007. "Multiple Transactions Model: A Panel Data Approach to Estimate Housing Market Indices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(3), pages 241-266.
    2. Changrong Deng & Yongkai Ma & Yao-Min Chiang, 2009. "The Dynamic Behavior of Chinese Housing Prices," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(2), pages 121-134.
    3. Mahua Barari & Nityananda Sarkar & Srikanta Kundu & Kushal Banik Chowdhury, 2014. "Forecasting House Prices in the United States with Multiple Structural Breaks," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, April.

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