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Application of bootstrap methods in investigation of size of the Granger causality test for integrated VAR systems

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  • Lach, Łukasz

Abstract

This paper examines the size performance of Toda-Yamamoto test for Granger causality in case of trivariate integrated-cointegrated VAR systems and relatively small sample size. The standard asymptotic distribution theory and the residual-based bootstrap approach are applied. A variety of types of distribution of error term is considered. The impact of misspecification of initial parameters as well as the influence of increase of sample size and number of bootstrap replications on size performance of Toda-Yamamoto test statistics is also examined. The results of conducted simulation study confirm that standard asymptotic distribution theory may often cause significant over-rejection. Application of bootstrap methods usually leads to improvement of size performance of Toda-Yamamoto test. However, in some cases considered bootstrap method also leads to serious size distortion and performs worse than the traditional approach based on distribution.

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  • Lach, Łukasz, 2010. "Application of bootstrap methods in investigation of size of the Granger causality test for integrated VAR systems," MPRA Paper 52285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52285
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    Cited by:

    1. Lukasz Lach, 2011. "Impact of hard coal usage for metal production on economic growth of Poland," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 9, pages 103-120.
    2. Alessandro Attanasio & Maurizio Maravalle & Giulia Fioravanti, 2012. "Examining Granger causality between atmospheric parameters and radon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 723-731, June.
    3. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, lukasz, 2011. "The role of coal consumption in the economic growth of the Polish economy in transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2088-2099, April.
    4. Henryk Gurgul & Łukasz Lach, 2010. "International trade and economic growth in the Polish economy," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 20(3-4), pages 5-29.
    5. Talha Yalta, A. & Cakar, Hatice, 2012. "Energy consumption and economic growth in China: A reconciliation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 666-675.
    6. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2012. "The electricity consumption versus economic growth of the Polish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 500-510.
    7. Wesseh, Presley K. & Zoumara, Babette, 2012. "Causal independence between energy consumption and economic growth in Liberia: Evidence from a non-parametric bootstrapped causality test," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 518-527.
    8. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh Jr., Presley K., 2014. "Energy consumption and economic growth in South Africa reexamined: A nonparametric testing apporach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 840-850.
    9. Yıldırım, Ertugrul & Sukruoglu, Deniz & Aslan, Alper, 2014. "Energy consumption and economic growth in the next 11 countries: The bootstrapped autoregressive metric causality approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-21.
    10. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach & Tomasz Wójtowicz, 2016. "Linear and nonlinear intraday causalities in response to U.S. macroeconomic news announcements: Evidence from Central Europe," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 17(2), pages 217-240.
    11. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2011. "Causality analysis between public expenditure and economic growth of Polish economy in last decade," MPRA Paper 52281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Di Iorio, Francesca & Triacca, Umberto, 2013. "Testing for Granger non-causality using the autoregressive metric," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 120-125.
    13. Di Iorio, Francesca & Triacca, Umberto, 2011. "Testing for non-causality by using the Autoregressive Metric," MPRA Paper 29637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Lach, Łukasz, 2010. "Fixed capital and long run economic growth: evidence from Poland," MPRA Paper 52280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Henryk Gurgul & Lukasz Lach, 2011. "The interdependence between energy consumption and economic growth in the Polish economy in the last decade," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 9, pages 25-48.
    16. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.

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    Keywords

    bootstrap methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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