Agent-Based Approach to Investors? Behavior and Asset Price Fluctuation in Financial Markets
AbstractIn this paper, we use Agent-Based Approach to analyze how asset prices are affected by investors and investment systems that are based on Behavioral Finance. We build a virtual financial market that contains two types of investors: fundamentalists and non-fundamentalists. As a result of intensive experiments in the market, we find that (1) the traded price agrees with the fundamental value and the fundamentalists survive according to the principle of natural selection in the case that the market contains the same number of fundamentalists and trend predictors (investors who make trend prediction), (2) the traded price largely deviates from the fundamental value and the non-fundamentalists frequently obtain excess returns and therefore the fundamentalists are eliminated according to the principle of natural selection in the case that the proportion of trend predictors is extremely high or in the case that the investment ratio of the risk asset is restricted, and (3) the traded price largely deviates from the fundamental value in the case that the non-fundamentalists estimate the losses excessively, as pointed in Prospect Theory. These results indicate that the non-fundamentalists affect the traded prices and obtain excess returns also in real markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation in its journal Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.
Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Agent-Based Approach; Financial Engineering; Behavioral Finance; natural selection; Society dynamics; Self-organizing systems and emergent organization;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gilles Teyssière & Alan Kirman, 2001.
"Microeconomic Models for Long-Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series,"
CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001
5A.4, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Kirman Alan & Teyssière Gilles, 2002. "Microeconomic Models for Long Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, January.
- KIRMAN, Alan & TEYSSIÈRE, Gilles, 2002. "Microeconomic models for long-memory in the volatility of financial time series," CORE Discussion Papers 2002056, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Alan P. Kirman, Gilles Teyssiere, 2001. "Microeconomic Models for Long-Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 221, Society for Computational Economics.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997.
"A Model of Investor Sentiment,"
NBER Working Papers
5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua M. Epstein & Robert L. Axtell, 1996. "Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550253, June.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, .
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers
_124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999.
"A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
- Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 6324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990.
" Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
- Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
- Herbert A. Simon, 1996. "The Sciences of the Artificial, 3rd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262691914, June.
- Emeterio Navarro & Ruben Cantero & Joao Rodrigues & Frank Schweitzer, 2007.
"Investments in Random Environments,"
0709.3630, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2008.
- Navarro-Barrientos, Jesús Emeterio & Cantero-Álvarez, Rubén & Matias Rodrigues, João F. & Schweitzer, Frank, 2008. "Investments in random environments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(8), pages 2035-2046.
- Neuberger, Doris & Rissi, Roger, 2012. "Macroprudential banking regulation: Does one size fit all?," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 124, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
- Gilbert Peffer & B rbara Llacay, 2007. "Higher-Order Simulations: Strategic Investment Under Model-Induced Price Patterns," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 10(2), pages 6.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nigel Gilbert).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.