IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/0801.4305.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk-Seeking versus Risk-Avoiding Investments in Noisy Periodic Environments

Author

Listed:
  • J. Emeterio Navarro Barrientos
  • Frank E. Walter
  • Frank Schweitzer

Abstract

We study the performance of various agent strategies in an artificial investment scenario. Agents are equipped with a budget, $x(t)$, and at each time step invest a particular fraction, $q(t)$, of their budget. The return on investment (RoI), $r(t)$, is characterized by a periodic function with different types and levels of noise. Risk-avoiding agents choose their fraction $q(t)$ proportional to the expected positive RoI, while risk-seeking agents always choose a maximum value $q_{max}$ if they predict the RoI to be positive ("everything on red"). In addition to these different strategies, agents have different capabilities to predict the future $r(t)$, dependent on their internal complexity. Here, we compare 'zero-intelligent' agents using technical analysis (such as moving least squares) with agents using reinforcement learning or genetic algorithms to predict $r(t)$. The performance of agents is measured by their average budget growth after a certain number of time steps. We present results of extensive computer simulations, which show that, for our given artificial environment, (i) the risk-seeking strategy outperforms the risk-avoiding one, and (ii) the genetic algorithm was able to find this optimal strategy itself, and thus outperforms other prediction approaches considered.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Emeterio Navarro Barrientos & Frank E. Walter & Frank Schweitzer, 2008. "Risk-Seeking versus Risk-Avoiding Investments in Noisy Periodic Environments," Papers 0801.4305, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0801.4305
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0801.4305
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    2. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
    3. Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti & Sergio Focardi & Michele Marchesi, 2003. "Traders' Long-Run Wealth in an Artificial Financial Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 255-272, October.
    4. Hiroshi Takahashi & Takao Terano, 2003. "Agent-Based Approach to Investors? Behavior and Asset Price Fluctuation in Financial Markets," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 6(3), pages 1-3.
    5. J. Doyne Farmer & Paolo Patelli & Ilija I. Zovko, 2003. "The Predictive Power of Zero Intelligence in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0309233, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2004.
    6. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    7. Moshe Levy & Sorin Solomon, 1996. "Power Laws Are Logarithmic Boltzmann Laws," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(04), pages 595-601.
    8. Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner, 2006. "Markets do not select for a liquidity preference as behavior towards risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 279-292, February.
    9. Edwards, Kimberley D., 1996. "Prospect theory: A literature review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 19-38.
    10. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    11. Lux, Thomas & Marchesi, Michele, 2002. "Journal of economic behavior and organization: special issue on heterogeneous interacting agents in financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 143-147, October.
    12. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
    13. J.-Emeterio Navarro-Barrientos, 2008. "Adaptive Investment Strategies For Periodic Environments," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(05), pages 761-787.
    14. Navarro-Barrientos, Jesús Emeterio & Cantero-Álvarez, Rubén & Matias Rodrigues, João F. & Schweitzer, Frank, 2008. "Investments in random environments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(8), pages 2035-2046.
    15. Markowitz, Harry M, 1991. "Foundations of Portfolio Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 469-477, June.
    16. Sergei Maslov & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 1998. "Optimal Investment Strategy for Risky Assets," Papers cond-mat/9801240, arXiv.org.
    17. Kirman, Alan & Tuinstra, Jan, 2005. "Bounded rationality, heterogeneity and market dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 595-600, April.
    18. Follmer, Hans & Horst, Ulrich & Kirman, Alan, 2005. "Equilibria in financial markets with heterogeneous agents: a probabilistic perspective," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 123-155, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Navarro-Barrientos, Jesús Emeterio & Cantero-Álvarez, Rubén & Matias Rodrigues, João F. & Schweitzer, Frank, 2008. "Investments in random environments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(8), pages 2035-2046.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Navarro-Barrientos, Jesús Emeterio & Cantero-Álvarez, Rubén & Matias Rodrigues, João F. & Schweitzer, Frank, 2008. "Investments in random environments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(8), pages 2035-2046.
    2. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2008. "The virtues and vices of equilibrium and the future of financial economics," Papers 0803.2996, arXiv.org.
    3. Torsten Trimborn & Philipp Otte & Simon Cramer & Maximilian Beikirch & Emma Pabich & Martin Frank, 2020. "SABCEMM: A Simulator for Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 707-744, February.
    4. Noemi Schmitt & Ivonne Schwartz & Frank Westerhoff, 2022. "Heterogeneous speculators and stock market dynamics: a simple agent-based computational model," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(13-15), pages 1263-1282, October.
    5. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    6. Lovric, M. & Kaymak, U. & Spronk, J., 2008. "A Conceptual Model of Investor Behavior," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-030-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    7. Moshe Levy & Haim Levy, 2013. "Prospect Theory: Much Ado About Nothing?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 7, pages 129-144, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2001. "Microscopic Models of Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0110354, arXiv.org.
    9. Dieci, Roberto & Foroni, Ilaria & Gardini, Laura & He, Xue-Zhong, 2006. "Market mood, adaptive beliefs and asset price dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 520-534.
    10. Anufriev, Mikhail & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2009. "Asset prices, traders' behavior and market design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1073-1090, May.
    11. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    12. Wieland, Cristian & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Exchange rate dynamics, central bank interventions and chaos control methods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 117-132, September.
    13. Frank H. Westerhoff & Cristian Wieland, 2004. "Spillover Dynamics of Central Bank Interventions," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 435-450, November.
    14. Arvid Oskar Ivar Hoffmann & Wander Jager & J. H. Von Eije, 2007. "Social Simulation of Stock Markets: Taking It to the Next Level," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 10(2), pages 1-7.
    15. Marco Licalzi & Paolo Pellizzari, 2003. "Fundamentalists clashing over the book: a study of order-driven stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 470-480.
    16. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2008. "Time variation of higher moments in a financial market with heterogeneous agents: An analytical approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 101-136, January.
    17. Heba M. Ezzat, 2019. "Disposition effect and multi-asset market dynamics," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(2), pages 144-164, June.
    18. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233, Elsevier.
    19. Broll, Udo & Egozcue, Martín & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zitikis, Ričardas, 2010. "Prospect theory and hedging risks," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 05/10, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    20. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0801.4305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.