IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/hin/complx/8254068.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price Dynamics in an Order-Driven Market with Bayesian Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Jiahua Wang
  • Hongliang Zhu
  • Dongxin Li

Abstract

In this paper, we have developed a model of limit order book with learning mechanism and investigated its price dynamics. In this model, continuous Bayesian learning is introduced to describe the dynamics of self-adjusting learning mechanism of agents, which can result in some important stylized facts of limit order markets. This study also provides some behavioral explanations for these well-known stylized facts that are commonly observed in the financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiahua Wang & Hongliang Zhu & Dongxin Li, 2018. "Price Dynamics in an Order-Driven Market with Bayesian Learning," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-15, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:8254068
    DOI: 10.1155/2018/8254068
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2018/8254068.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/8503/2018/8254068.xml
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2018/8254068?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krause, Andreas, 2006. "Fat tails and multi-scaling in a simple model of limit order markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 368(1), pages 183-190.
    2. Eric Smith & J Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Supriya Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Statistical theory of the continuous double auction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 481-514.
    3. Bentes, Sónia R. & Menezes, Rui & Mendes, Diana A., 2008. "Long memory and volatility clustering: Is the empirical evidence consistent across stock markets?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3826-3830.
    4. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frederic Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 991-1012.
    5. Iori, Giulia, 2002. "A microsimulation of traders activity in the stock market: the role of heterogeneity, agents' interactions and trade frictions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-285, October.
    6. Sergei Maslov & Mark Mills, 2001. "Price fluctuations from the order book perspective - empirical facts and a simple model," Papers cond-mat/0102518, arXiv.org.
    7. Yanhui Liu & Pierre Cizeau & Martin Meyer & Chung-Kang Peng & H. Eugene Stanley, 1997. "Correlations in Economic Time Series," Papers cond-mat/9706021, arXiv.org.
    8. Carl Chiarella & Giulia Iori, 2002. "A simulation analysis of the microstructure of double auction markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 346-353.
    9. Willmann, R.D & Schütz, G.M & Challet, D, 2002. "Exact Hurst exponent and crossover behavior in a limit order market model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 430-440.
    10. Maskawa, Jun-ichi, 2007. "Correlation of coming limit price with order book in stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 90-95.
    11. Thomas Lux & Michele Marchesi, 1999. "Scaling and criticality in a stochastic multi-agent model of a financial market," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6719), pages 498-500, February.
    12. Tian Qiu & Liang Guo & Guang Chen, 2008. "Scaling and Memory Effect in Volatility Return Interval of the Chinese Stock Market," Papers 0805.2194, arXiv.org.
    13. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Luis A. Nunes Amaral & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indices," Papers cond-mat/9905305, arXiv.org.
    14. Hiroshi Takahashi & Takao Terano, 2003. "Agent-Based Approach to Investors? Behavior and Asset Price Fluctuation in Financial Markets," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 6(3), pages 1-3.
    15. McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H. & Bassler, Kevin E., 2007. "Hurst exponents, Markov processes, and fractional Brownian motion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 1-9.
    16. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei, 2007. "Power-law behaviour, heterogeneity, and trend chasing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3396-3426, October.
    17. Ladley, Dan & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner, 2009. "Do stylised facts of order book markets need strategic behaviour?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 817-831, April.
    18. Tseng, Jie-Jun & Lin, Chih-Hao & Lin, Chih-Ting & Wang, Sun-Chong & Li, Sai-Ping, 2010. "Statistical properties of agent-based models in markets with continuous double auction mechanism," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(8), pages 1699-1707.
    19. Potters, Marc & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2003. "More statistical properties of order books and price impact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 133-140.
    20. W. Brian Arthur & Paul Tayler, "undated". "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 57, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. Gao-Feng Gu & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2008. "Emergence of long memory in stock volatility from a modified Mike-Farmer model," Papers 0807.4639, arXiv.org, revised May 2009.
    22. Chiarella, Carl & Iori, Giulia, 2009. "The impact of heterogeneous trading rules on the limit order book and order flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-537.
    23. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2006. "Asset price and wealth dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1755-1786.
    24. Thomas Lux & Michele Marchesi, 2000. "Volatility Clustering In Financial Markets: A Microsimulation Of Interacting Agents," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 675-702.
    25. Maslov, Sergei & Mills, Mark, 2001. "Price fluctuations from the order book perspective—empirical facts and a simple model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 234-246.
    26. Ellis, Craig, 2007. "The sampling properties of Hurst exponent estimates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 375(1), pages 159-173.
    27. Cont, Rama & Bouchaud, Jean-Philipe, 2000. "Herd Behavior And Aggregate Fluctuations In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 170-196, June.
    28. Gu, Gao-Feng & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Empirical distributions of Chinese stock returns at different microscopic timescales," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(2), pages 495-502.
    29. Chen, Shu-Heng, 2012. "Varieties of agents in agent-based computational economics: A historical and an interdisciplinary perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25.
    30. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Fernandez-Anaya, Guillermo, 2008. "Time-varying Hurst exponent for US stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(24), pages 6159-6169.
    31. Qiu, T. & Guo, L. & Chen, G., 2008. "Scaling and memory effect in volatility return interval of the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(27), pages 6812-6818.
    32. Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2004. "On the Origin of Power-Law Fluctuations in Stock Prices," Papers cond-mat/0403067, arXiv.org.
    33. Cross, Rod & Grinfeld, Michael & Lamba, Harbir & Seaman, Tim, 2005. "A threshold model of investor psychology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 463-478.
    34. Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano & Focardi, Sergio M. & Marchesi, Michele, 2001. "Agent-based simulation of a financial market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 319-327.
    35. R. Yamamoto & B. LeBaron, 2010. "Order-splitting and long-memory in an order-driven market," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 73(1), pages 51-57, January.
    36. Wei, J.R. & Huang, J.P. & Hui, P.M., 2013. "An agent-based model of stock markets incorporating momentum investors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(12), pages 2728-2735.
    37. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    38. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frédéric Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Post-Print hal-00621058, HAL.
    39. Jie-Jun Tseng & Chih-Hao Lin & Chih-Ting Lin & Sun-Chong Wang & Sai-Ping Li, 2010. "Statistical properties of agent-based models in markets with continuous double auction mechanism," Papers 1002.0917, arXiv.org.
    40. Gençay, Ramazan & Dacorogna, Michel & Muller, Ulrich A. & Pictet, Olivier & Olsen, Richard, 2001. "An Introduction to High-Frequency Finance," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796715.
    41. Liu, Yanhui & Cizeau, Pierre & Meyer, Martin & Peng, C.-K. & Eugene Stanley, H., 1997. "Correlations in economic time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 437-440.
    42. LeBaron, Blake & Yamamoto, Ryuichi, 2007. "Long-memory in an order-driven market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 85-89.
    43. Jun-ichi Maskawa, 2007. "Correlation of coming limit price with order book in stock markets," Papers physics/0702029, arXiv.org.
    44. F. Lillo, 2007. "Limit order placement as an utility maximization problem and the origin of power law distribution of limit order prices," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 55(4), pages 453-459, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabin Shi & Xiao-Qian Sun & Jinhua Gao & Zidong Wang & Hua-Wei Shen & Xue-Qi Cheng, 2021. "The prediction of fluctuation in the order-driven financial market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-15, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2010. "Limit Order Books," Papers 1012.0349, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    2. Alessio Emanuele Biondo, 2020. "Information versus imitation in a real-time agent-based model of financial markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(3), pages 613-631, July.
    3. Ni, Xiao-Hui & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Gu, Gao-Feng & Ren, Fei & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2010. "Scaling and memory in the non-Poisson process of limit order cancelation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(14), pages 2751-2761.
    4. Alberto Ciacci & Takumi Sueshige & Hideki Takayasu & Kim Christensen & Misako Takayasu, 2020. "The microscopic relationships between triangular arbitrage and cross-currency correlations in a simple agent based model of foreign exchange markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Kyubin Yim & Gabjin Oh & Seunghwan Kim, 2016. "Understanding Financial Market States Using an Artificial Double Auction Market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Gao-Feng Gu & Xiong Xiong & Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Zhang & Yongjie Zhang & Wei Chen & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2021. "An empirical behavioral order-driven model with price limit rules," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    7. Thomas Lux, 2009. "Applications of Statistical Physics in Finance and Economics," Chapters, in: J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Biondo, Alessio Emanuele, 2017. "Learning to forecast, risk aversion, and microstructural aspects of financial stability," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Wei, J.R. & Huang, J.P. & Hui, P.M., 2013. "An agent-based model of stock markets incorporating momentum investors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(12), pages 2728-2735.
    10. Martin D. Gould & Mason A. Porter & Stacy Williams & Mark McDonald & Daniel J. Fenn & Sam D. Howison, 2013. "Limit order books," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1709-1742, November.
    11. Gu, Gao-Feng & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Empirical regularities of order placement in the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(13), pages 3173-3182.
    12. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034, Decembrie.
    13. Alessio Emanuele Biondo, 2018. "Order book microstructure and policies for financial stability," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(1), pages 196-218, March.
    14. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    15. Frank McGroarty & Ash Booth & Enrico Gerding & V. L. Raju Chinthalapati, 2019. "High frequency trading strategies, market fragility and price spikes: an agent based model perspective," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 217-244, November.
    16. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    17. Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frederic Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 991-1012.
    18. Blaurock, Ivonne & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2018. "Market entry waves and volatility outbursts in stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 19-37.
    19. Tubbenhauer, Tobias & Fieberg, Christian & Poddig, Thorsten, 2021. "Multi-agent-based VaR forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Alessio Emanuele Biondo, 2019. "Order book modeling and financial stability," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 469-489, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hin:complx:8254068. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mohamed Abdelhakeem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hindawi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.