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Treatment Effectiveness and Side Effects: A Model of Physician Learning

Author

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  • Tat Chan

    (Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri 63130)

  • Chakravarthi Narasimhan

    (Olin Business School, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri 63130)

  • Ying Xie

    (Jindal School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas 75080)

Abstract

In this paper we study how treatment effectiveness and side effects impact the prescription decision of a risk-averse physician, and how detailing and patient feedback help reduce the physician's uncertainty in these two attributes in the erectile dysfunction category. To separately identify the impacts of effectiveness and side effects, we augment the observed prescription choices with unique data on self-reported reasons for switching in our estimation. Results show that the two new drugs Levitra and Cialis have higher mean effectiveness than the existing drug Viagra, but physicians have large uncertainty regarding the effectiveness for Levitra and side effects for Cialis. Detailing is effective in reducing the uncertainty for effectiveness but much less so for side effects. Based on the results, we investigate the roles of effectiveness and side effects in physicians' prescription choices, and the importance of detailing for new entrants in competing with incumbent drugs. This paper was accepted by J. Miguel Villas-Boas, marketing.

Suggested Citation

  • Tat Chan & Chakravarthi Narasimhan & Ying Xie, 2013. "Treatment Effectiveness and Side Effects: A Model of Physician Learning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1309-1325, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:59:y:2013:i:6:p:1309-1325
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1640
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. Ching, Andrew T. & Erdem, Tülin & Keane, Michael P., 2014. "A simple method to estimate the roles of learning, inventories and category consideration in consumer choice," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 60-72.
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    19. Andrew T. Ching & Tülin Erdem & Michael P. Keane, 2020. "How much do consumers know about the quality of products? Evidence from the diaper market," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 541-569, October.
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    22. Jürgen Maurer & Katherine M. Harris, 2016. "Learning to Trust Flu Shots: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence from the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(9), pages 1148-1162, September.
    23. Maurer, J. & Harris, K.M., 2015. "Learning to trust flu shots: quasi-experimental evidence on the role of learning in influenza vaccination decisions from the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 15/19, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    24. Wesley J. Marrero & Mariel S. Lavieri & Jeremy B. Sussman, 2021. "Optimal cholesterol treatment plans and genetic testing strategies for cardiovascular diseases," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-25, March.

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