IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v53y2007i6p865-880.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Analysis of Short-Term Responses to Threats of Terrorism

Author

Listed:
  • Edieal J. Pinker

    (Simon School of Business, University of Rochester, CS3-345 Carol Simon Hall, Rochester, New York 14627)

Abstract

Two important defensive mechanisms available to governments combating terrorism are warnings and the deployment of physical resources. Warnings are relatively inexpensive to issue but their effectiveness suffers from false alarms. Physical deployments of trained security personnel can directly thwart attacks but are expensive and need to be targeted to specific locations. In this paper, we model the joint optimization of defenses against terrorist attacks based on warnings and physical deployments when there is uncertainty in the timing and location of attacks. We model both private warnings issued to security forces and public warnings broadcast to the general public. By structuring the trade-offs faced by decision makers in a formal way, we try to shed light on an important public policy problem. We show that the interaction between the use of warnings and physical defenses is complex and significant. For public warnings, we also model the possible response of terrorists and show how these responses influence the effectiveness of such warnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Edieal J. Pinker, 2007. "An Analysis of Short-Term Responses to Threats of Terrorism," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 865-880, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:53:y:2007:i:6:p:865-880
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1060.0665
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0665
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0665?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Green, Kesten C., 2002. "Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344.
    2. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2004. "Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 27/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    3. Keohane, Nathaniel O & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 2003. "The Ecology of Terror Defense," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 201-229, March-May.
    4. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1993. "The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression-Intervention Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(4), pages 829-844, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pourakbar, M. & Zuidwijk, R.A., 2018. "The role of customs in securing containerized global supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(1), pages 331-340.
    2. Edouard Kujawski, 2016. "A Probabilistic Game‐Theoretic Method to Assess Deterrence and Defense Benefits of Security Systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(6), pages 549-566, November.
    3. Insua, Insua Rios & Rios, Jesus & Banks, David, 2009. "Adversarial Risk Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(486), pages 841-854.
    4. Saed Alizamir & Francis de Véricourt & Shouqiang Wang, 2020. "Warning Against Recurring Risks: An Information Design Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(10), pages 4612-4629, October.
    5. Andres F. Jola-Sanchez & Juan Camilo Serpa, 2021. "Inventory in Times of War," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 6457-6479, October.
    6. Zhujun Liu & Jiuping Xu & Bernard Han, 2013. "Small- and medium-sized enterprise post-disaster reconstruction management patterns and application," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 809-835, September.
    7. Nitin Bakshi & Noah Gans, 2010. "Securing the Containerized Supply Chain: Analysis of Government Incentives for Private Investment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(2), pages 219-233, February.
    8. Gary E. Bolton & Elena Katok, 2018. "Cry Wolf or Equivocate? Credible Forecast Guidance in a Cost-Loss Game," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1440-1457, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Green, Kesten C., 2005. "Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: Further evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 463-472.
    2. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Structured analogies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 365-376.
    3. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Role thinking: Standing in other people's shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 69-80, January.
    4. J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green, 2005. "Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    5. Meyer Sunniva F., 2011. "Preventing Mass Killings: Determining the Optimal Allocation of Security Resources between Crowded Targets," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-37, September.
    6. Timothy Mathews & Anton D. Lowenberg, 2012. "The Interdependence Between Homeland Security Efforts of a State and a Terrorist’s Choice of Attack," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(2), pages 195-218, April.
    7. Vicki Bier & Santiago Oliveros & Larry Samuelson, 2007. "Choosing What to Protect: Strategic Defensive Allocation against an Unknown Attacker," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 9(4), pages 563-587, August.
    8. Sylvain Baumann, 2019. "Intelligence Service for a Better Information: Application to a Terrorist Threat," Post-Print hal-02949075, HAL.
    9. A. J. Novak & G. Feichtinger & G. Leitmann, 2010. "A Differential Game Related to Terrorism: Nash and Stackelberg Strategies," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 533-555, March.
    10. Litsiou, Konstantia & Polychronakis, Yiannis & Karami, Azhdar & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Relative performance of judgmental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1185-1196.
    11. Shortland, Anja & Vothknecht, Marc, 2011. "Combating “maritime terrorism” off the coast of Somalia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 133-151.
    12. Bose, Gautam & Konrad, Kai A., 2020. "Devil take the hindmost: Deflecting attacks to other defenders," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    13. John K. Stranlund & Barry C. Field, 2006. "On the Production of Homeland Security Under True Uncertainty," Working Papers 2006-5, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
    14. Ulrich Hendel, 2016. "‘Look like the innocent flower, but be the serpent under’t’: mimicking behaviour of growth-oriented terrorist organizations," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 665-687, September.
    15. Kjell Hausken & Jun Zhuang, 2011. "Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T -Period Game," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 46-70, March.
    16. Geoffrey Heal & Howard Kunreuther, 2003. "You Only Die Once: Managing Discrete Interdependent Risks," NBER Working Papers 9885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Christophe Muller & Pierre Pecher, 2021. "Terrorism, Insurgency, State Repression, and Cycles of Violence," Working Papers halshs-03134347, HAL.
    18. Rehman, Faiz Ur & Nasir, Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "What have we learned? Assessing the effectiveness of counterterrorism strategies in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 487-495.
    19. Mubashra, Sana & Shafi, Mariuam i, 2018. "The Impact of Counter-terrorism Effectiveness on Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis," MPRA Paper 84847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Entorf, Horst, 2005. "Islamistischer Terrorismus : Analysen, Entwicklungen und Anti-Terrorpolitik aus der Sicht ökonomischer Forschung," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 24551, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:53:y:2007:i:6:p:865-880. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.