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Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement

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  • Green, Kesten C.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 18 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 321-344

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:18:y:2002:i:3:p:321-344

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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References

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  1. Keser, C. & Gardner, R., 1994. "Strategic Behavior of Experienced Subjects in a Common Pool Resource Game," Papers 94-009, Indiana - Center for Econometric Model Research.
  2. Suleiman, Ramzi, 1996. "Expectations and fairness in a modified Ultimatum game," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 531-554, November.
  3. Mrinal Ghosh & George John, 2000. "Experimental Evidence for Agency Models of Salesforce Compensation," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 348-365, August.
  4. Scott Armstrong, J. & Brodie, Roderick J. & McIntyre, Shelby H., 1987. "Forecasting methods for marketing: Review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 355-376.
  5. Sonnegard, Joakim, 1996. "Determination of first movers in sequential bargaining games: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 359-386, June.
  6. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Social Irresponsibility in Management," General Economics and Teaching 0412031, EconWPA.
  7. Babcock, Linda, et al, 1995. "Biased Judgments of Fairness in Bargaining," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1337-43, December.
  8. Diekmann, Andreas, 1993. "Cooperation in an Asymmetric Volunteer's Dilemma Game: Theory and Experimental Evidence," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 75-85.
  9. Jehiel, Philippe, 1998. "Repeated games and limited forecasting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 543-551, May.
  10. Robert Gibbons & Leaf Van Boven, 1999. "Contingent Social Utiltiy in the Prisoner's Dilemma," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2105, David K. Levine.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Structured analogies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 365-376.
  2. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2009. "Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts," MPRA Paper 16422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Bozos, Konstantinos & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2011. "Forecasting the value effect of seasoned equity offering announcements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 418-427, October.
  4. Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, 2010. "Forecasting with quantitative methods: the impact of special events in time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 947-955.
  5. J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green, 2005. "Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  6. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.
  7. Green, Kesten C., 2002. "Embroiled in a conflict: who do you call?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 389-395.
  8. Hertzog, Thomas & Poussin, Jean-Christophe & Tangara, Bréhima & Kouriba, Indé & Jamin, Jean-Yves, 2014. "A role playing game to address future water management issues in a large irrigated system: Experience from Mali," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1-14.
  9. Bolton, Gary E., 2002. "Game theory's role in role-playing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 353-358.
  10. Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Improving our ability to predict the unusual event," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 161-163.
  11. Shefrin, Hersh, 2002. "Behavioral decision making, forecasting, game theory, and role-play," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 375-382.
  12. JS Armstrong & Ruth Pagell, 2005. "Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, with Reply to Commentators," General Economics and Teaching 0502048, EconWPA.
  13. Woodside, Arch G., 2012. "Incompetency training: Theory, practice, and remedies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 279-293.
  14. Martin Hrubý, 2008. "Algorithmic Approaches to Game-theoretical Modeling and Simulation," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 2(3), pages 268-300, December.
  15. Green, Kesten C., 2005. "Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: Further evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 463-472.
  16. Goodwin, Paul, 2002. "Forecasting games: can game theory win?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 369-374.
  17. Martin Hrubý & Petr Čambala & Jan Toufar, 2010. "Game-Theoretic Modeling of Electricity Markets in Central Europe," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 032-061, March.

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