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The Ecology of Terror Defense

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Author Info
Keohane, Nathaniel O
Zeckhauser, Richard J

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Abstract

We draw on an ecological metaphor to analyze terror defense by governments and individuals. Governments can combat terror in part by targeting what we call the "stock of terror capacity" accumulated by a terrorist organization. The optimal control of terror stocks relies on both periodic cleanup and ongoing abatement, a lesson derived from the optimal control of other stocks of public bads, such as pollution. Citizens can protect themselves from terror by avoiding exposure to threats and by reducing the harm they suffer if an attack occurs--actions we call "avoidance" and "amelioration," respectively. Such measures may exert positive or negative externalities on other individuals. A simple model shows how individual responses to collective threats may undermine the effectiveness of government policies to address such threats. The model uncovers a strong analogy between the problem of individual responses to terror and the familiar congestion externality. Copyright 2003 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Volume (Year): 26 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (March-May)
Pages: 201-29
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:26:y:2003:i:2-3:p:201-29

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100299

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  1. Howard C. Kunreuther & Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, 2007. "Evaluating The Effectiveness of Terrorism Risk Financing Solutions," NBER Working Papers 13359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Beverly Porter, 2003. "Assessing, Managing, and Financing Extreme Events: Dealing with Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 10179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Geoffrey Heal & Howard Kunreuther, 2003. "You Only Die Once: Managing Discrete Interdependent Risks," NBER Working Papers 9885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Thomann, Christian & Schulenburg, J.-Matthias, 2006. "Supply and Demand for Terrorism Insurance: Lessons from Germany," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-340, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  5. John K. Stranlund & Barry C. Field, 2006. "On the Production of Homeland Security Under True Uncertainty," Working Papers 2006-5, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Darius Lakdawalla & Eric Talley, 2006. "Optimal Liability for Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 12578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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