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You Only Die Once: Managing Discrete Interdependent Risks

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Author Info
Geoffrey Heal
Howard Kunreuther

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Abstract

This paper extends our earlier analysis of interdependent security issues to a general class of problems involving discrete interdependent risks with heterogeneous agents. There is a threat of an event that can only happen once, and the risk depends on actions taken by others. Any agent's incentive to invest in managing the risk depends on the actions of others. Security problems at airlines and in computer networks come into this category, as do problems of risk management in organizations facing the possibility of bankruptcy, and individuals' choices about whether to be vaccinated against an infectious disease. Surprisingly the framework also covers certain aspects of investment in R&D. Here we characterize Nash equilibria with heterogeneous agents and give conditions for tipping and cascading of equilibria.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9885.

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Date of creation: Aug 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9885

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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  1. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-70, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Crawford, Vincent P & Haller, Hans, 1990. "Learning How to Cooperate: Optimal Play in Repeated Coordination Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 571-95, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Keohane, Nathaniel O & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 2003. " The Ecology of Terror Defense," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 26(2-3), pages 201-29, March-May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Howard Kunreuther & Geoffrey Heal, 2002. "Interdependent Security: The Case of Identical Agents," NBER Working Papers 8871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. V.V. Chari & Ravi Jagannathan, 1984. "Banking Panics," Discussion Papers 618, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
  6. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1994. "Systems Competition and Network Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 93-115, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Darius Lakdawalla & George Zanjani, 2002. "Insurance, Self-Protection, and the Economics of Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 9215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Avinash Dixit, 1988. "A General Model of R&D Competition and Policy," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(3), pages 317-326, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Avinash Dixit, 2003. "Clubs with Entrapment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1824-1836, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Dasgupta, Partha & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1981. "Resource Depletion under Technological Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(1), pages 85-104, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Todd Sandler, 2003. "Collective Action and Transnational Terrorism," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(6), pages 779-802, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Partha Dasgupta & Joseph Stiglitz, 1980. "Uncertainty, Industrial Structure, and the Speed of R&D," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Beverly Porter, 2003. "Assessing, Managing, and Financing Extreme Events: Dealing with Terrorism," NBER Working Papers 10179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Christian Gollier, 2005. "Some Aspects of the Economics of Catastrophe Risk Insurance," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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