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Anticipated Alternative policy Rate Paths in Plicy Simulations

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  • Stefan Laséen

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

  • Lars E.O. Svensson

    (Stockholm University)

Abstract

This paper specifies a new convenient algorithm to construct policy projections conditional on alternative anticipated policy rate paths in linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, such as Ramses, the Riksbank’s main DSGE model. Such projections with anticipated policy rate paths correspond to situations where the central bank transparently announces that it, conditional on current information, plans to implement a particular policy rate path and where this announced plan for the policy rate is believed and then anticipated by the private sector. The main idea of the algorithm is to include among the predetermined variables (the “state” of the economy) the vector of non-zero means of future shocks to a given policy rule that is required to satisfy the given anticipated policy rate path.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 7 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 1-35

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2011:q:3:a:1

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  1. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2012. "Optimal target criteria for stabilization policy," Staff Reports 535, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Joseph E. Gagnon & Dale W. Henderson, 1990. "Nominal interest rate pegging under alternative expectations hypotheses," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 438-473.
  3. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Svensson, Lars E O, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6907, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  5. Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252.
  6. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  7. Lars E.O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
  8. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laseen & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani, 2005. "An estimated New Keynesian small open economy model," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Peter Hooper & Karen H. Johnson & Donald L. Kohn & David E. Lindsey & Richard D. Porter & Ralph Tryon, 1990. "Financial sectors in open economies: empirical analysis and policy issues: results of a preconference workshop (January 1988) and the conference (May 1988) sponsored by the Board of Governors of the F," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
  1. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2013. "Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 012, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Charles T Carlstrom & Timothy S Fuerst & Matthius Paustian, 2012. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Working Paper 1234, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2011. "Foresight and Information Flows," NBER Working Papers 16951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2013. "The Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Interest Rate Assumption for Central Bank Forecasts," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80042, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Verona , Fabio & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Drumond , Inês, 2013. "(Un)anticipated monetary policy in a DSGE model with a shadow banking system," Research Discussion Papers 4/2013, Bank of Finland.

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