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What determines the exchange rate: economic factors or market sentiment?

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Author Info
Gregory P. Hopper
Abstract

Do economic factors influence exchange rates? Or does market sentiment play a bigger role? Are short-run exchange rates predictable? Greg Hopper reviews exchange-rate economics, focusing on what is predictable and what isn't. He also examines the practical implications of exchange-rate theories for currency option pricing, risk management, and portfolio selection.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its journal Business Review.

Volume (Year): (1997)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages: 17-29
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:1997:i:sep:p:17-29

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Related research
Keywords: Foreign exchange rates;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1993. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lewis, Karen K., 1988. "Testing the portfolio balance model: A multi-lateral approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 109-127, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Robert F. Engle & Gary G.J. Lee, 1993. "Long Run Volatility Forecasting for Individual Stocks in a One Factor Model," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-30, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gregory P. Hopper, 1994. "Is the foreign exchange market inefficient?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 17-27. [Downloadable!]
  9. Schlagenhauf, Don E. & Wrase, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Liquidity and real activity in a simple open economy model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 431-461, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. David Backus, 1984. "Empirical Models of the Exchange Rate: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 824-46, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  13. Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "Are exchange rates macroeconomic phenomena?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 19-30. [Downloadable!]
  14. MacDonald, Ronald, 1983. "Some Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in the Foreign Exchange Market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 235-50, November.
  15. Robert F. Engle & Gary G.J. Lee, 1993. "A Permanent and Transitory Component Model of Stock Return Volatility," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-44r, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  16. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gregory P. Hopper, 1996. "Value at risk: a new methodology for measuring portfolio risk," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 19-31. [Downloadable!]
  18. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Oreste Napolitano & Alberto Montagnoli & Rosaria Rita Canale, 2002. "The Role And Nature Of Market Sentiment In The 1992 Erm Crisis," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-20, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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