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Tests of the market's reaction to federal funds rate target changes

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Author Info
Daniel L. Thornton

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Abstract

In this article, Daniel L. Thornton tests several hypotheses about the market's reactions to changes in the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target. Thornton finds that short-term rates and long-term rates responded differently to funds rate target changes when target changes were accompanied by a change in the discount rate. He presents evidence that the smaller response of long-term rates (in these instances) is due to the market revising its inflation outlook when the target is changed. Thornton finds no evidence that the size of the market's response varies with the size of the target change; however, he does find that the response to target changes is somewhat larger when the target change is the first change in a new direction. The reader is cautioned, however, that some of his results are based on a very small number of target changes.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
Pages: 25-36
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1998:i:nov:p:25-36:n:6

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Keywords: Federal funds market (United States) ; Financial markets;

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  1. Hui S. Chang, 2005. "Estimating the Monetary Policy Reaction Function for Taiwan: A VAR Model," The International Journal of Applied Economics, Department of General Business, Southeastern Louisiana University, vol. 2(1), pages 50-61, March. [Downloadable!]
  2. Courtenay, Roger & Clare, Andrew, 2001. "What can we learn about monetary policy transparency from financial market data?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Magnus Andersson & Lars Jul Hansen & Szabolcs Sebestyén, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 631, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Linda Goldberg & Deborah Leonard, 2003. "What moves sovereign bond markets? The effects of economic news on U.S. and German yields," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Antulio N. Bomfim & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2000. "Making news: financial market effects of Federal Reserve disclosure practices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?," Working Paper Series 200, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission," NBER Working Papers 11166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Explaining monetary policy in press conferences," Working Paper Series 767, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Andrea Monticini & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Are Euro Interest Rates led by FED Announcements?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Equal size, equal role? Interest rate interdependence between the euro area and the United States," Working Paper Series 342, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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