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Avaliação dos Impactos Macro-Econômicos e de Bem-Estar da Reforma Tributária no Brasil

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  • Pereira, Ricardo A. de Castro
  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti

Abstract

This article evaluates the impact on the Brazilian economy of a tax reform that reduces distortions and cumulative taxes, using for such experiment the current proposal of the Brazilian Treasury Department (Ministério da Fazenda). We employ a standard dynamic recursive model calibrated as close as possible to the current Brazilian economy in our simulations, which are implemented by introducing in this artificial economy parameters corresponding to the tax reform. It is estimated that the current proposal would lead to an increase of 1.2 percentile point in the output growth rate in the eight years following its implementation and a long run gain of 14% from its current trend. The impact on the investment level would be very expressive, 40% in the same period, so that the investment rate would from 20% for 26%. Estimated welfare gains were also very large.

Suggested Citation

  • Pereira, Ricardo A. de Castro & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti, 2010. "Avaliação dos Impactos Macro-Econômicos e de Bem-Estar da Reforma Tributária no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:64:y:2010:i:2:a:1477
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Douglas Holtz-Eakin, 1992. "Public-Sector Capital and the Productivity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kevin T. Duffy-Deno & Randall W. Eberts, 1996. "Public Infrastructure and Regional Economic Development: A Simultaneous Equations Approach," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Niles Hansen & Kenneth J. Button & Peter Nijkamp (ed.),Regional Policy and Regional Integration, pages 295-309, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
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    4. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Nascimento, Leandro Gonçalves do, 2005. "Welfare and growth effects of alternative fiscal rules for infrastructure investment in Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 604, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
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    6. Victor Duarte Lledo, 2005. "Tax Systems Under Fiscal Adjustment: A Dynamic CGE Analysis of the Brazilian Tax Reform," IMF Working Papers 2005/142, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Pereira, Ricardo A. de castro, 2008. "Efeitos de Crescimento e Bem-estar da Lei de Parceria Público-Privada no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 62(2), October.
    8. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Berriel, Tiago Couto & Zilberman, Eduardo, 2011. "Targeting the poor: a macroeconomic analysis of cash transfer programs," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 726, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Canuto, Otaviano, 2015. "Gender equality and economic growth in Brazil: A long-run analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 155-172.
    3. Anna Carolina Saba dos Reis & Eduardo Zilberman, 2013. "On the Optimal Size of Public Employment," Textos para discussão 612, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    4. Delalibera, Bruno Ricardo & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Parente, Rafael Machado, 2023. "Social security reforms, retirement and sectoral decisions," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 838, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    5. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Parente, Rafael Machado, 2018. "Social security reform, retirement and occupational behavior," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 803, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).

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