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Parameter Drifting in a DSGE Model Estimated on Czech Data

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Abstract

In this article, the authors investigate the possible time-varying structure of DSGE models. They follow the study of Andrle et al. (2009), which argues that models designed for monetary policy analysis and forecasting of an economy that is undergoing structural changes must include exogenous processes (technologies) capturing the specific characteristics of individual sectors. The authors conclude that the presence of structural changes and the convergence process in the data imply drifting of structural parameters in the model without technologies. Incorporating technologies causes the structural parameters to be relatively stable. From the perspective of monetary policy analysis and forecasting, it seems more convenient to assume that the structural parameters are stable and use sectoral technologies owing to their aggregate form.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaromir Tonner & Jiri Polansky & Osvald Vašíèek, 2011. "Parameter Drifting in a DSGE Model Estimated on Czech Data," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(5), pages 510-524, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:61:y:2011:i:5:p:510-524
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    Cited by:

    1. Katerina Arnostova & Jozef Barunik & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Roman Horvath & Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova & Lubos Ruzicka & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova & Peter Toth, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods, Accuracy and Coordination," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 10, number rb10/1 edited by Jan Babecky, January.
    2. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Jan Zacek, 2018. "Should Monetary Policy Lean against the Wind? An Evidence from a DSGE Model with Occasionally Binding Constraint," Working Papers IES 2018/37, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2018.
    4. Miroslav Hloušek, 2016. "The Empirical Implications of the Zero Lower Bound on the Interest Rate: The Case of the Czech Economy," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 603-616.
    5. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Alexis Derviz & Vaclav Hausenblas & Michal Hlavacek & Mark Joy & Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Ivana Kubicova & Jitka Lesanovska, 2014. "Macroprudential Research: Selected Issues," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 12, number rb12/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Borek Vasicek, January.
    6. Robert Ambrisko & Vitezslav Augusta & Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Jan Libich & Pavla Netusilova & Milan Rikovsky & Jakub Rysanek & Pavel Soukup & Petr Stehlik & Vilem Vale, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 11, number rb11/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, January.
    7. Jan Čapek, 2016. "Structural Changes in the Czech Economy: A DSGE Model Approach," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(1), pages 37-52.
    8. Zacek, Jan, 2020. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind? Simulations based on a DSGE model with an occasionally binding credit constraint," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 293-311.
    9. Stanislav Tvrz & Osvald Vasicek, 2016. "The Great Recession in the Non-EMU Visegrád Countries: A Nonlinear DSGE Model with Time-Varying Parameters," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(3), pages 207-235, June.
    10. Jan Bruha & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Jiri Polansky & Jaromir Tonner, 2013. "Incorporating Judgments and Dealing with Data Uncertainty in Forecasting at the Czech National Bank," Research and Policy Notes 2013/02, Czech National Bank.
    11. Kamil Galuscak & Adam Gersl & Marcela Gronychova & Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2014. "Stress-Testing Analyses of the Czech Financial System," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 12, number rb12/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, January.
    12. Jaromir Baxa & Michal Franta & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Miroslav Plasil & Marek Rusnak & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Transmission of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 11, number rb11/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, January.
    13. Jose Peydro Alcalde & Sona Benecka & Alexis Derviz & Adam Gersl & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Dorota Kowalczyk & Ivana Kubicova & Steven Ongena & Jakub Ry, 2012. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 10, number rb10/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, January.
    14. Martin Slanicay & Jan Čapek & Miroslav Hloušek, 2016. "Some Notes On Problematic Issues In Dsge Models," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 79-100, July - Se.
    15. Jakub Rysanek & Jaromir Tonner & Stanislav Tvrz & Osvald Vasicek, 2012. "Monetary Policy Implications of Financial Frictions in the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 413-429, November.
    16. Tvrz Stanislav & Vašíček Osvald, 2016. "Structural changes in the Czech, Slovak and euro area economies during the Great Recession," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 16(4), pages 297-336, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; time-varying parameters; Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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