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Asymmetric cointegration and causality effects between financial development and economic growth in South Africa

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  • Andrew Phiri

Abstract

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to investigate asymmetric cointegration and causality effects between financial development and economic growth for South African data spanning over the period of 1992-2013. Design/methodology/approach - – This study makes the use of the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) approach which allows for threshold error-correction (TEC) modeling and Granger causality analysis between the variables. In carrying out an empirical analysis, the author uses six measures of the financial development variables against gross domestic per capita, that is, three measures which proxy banking activity and another three proxies for stock market development. Findings - – The empirical results generally indicate an abrupt asymmetric cointegration relationship between banking activity and economic growth, on the one hand, and a smooth cointegration relationship between stock market activity and economic growth, on the other hand. Moreover, causality analysis generally reveals that while banking activity tends to Granger cause economic growth, stock market activity is, however, caused by economic growth increase. Originality/value - – This study contributes to the literature by examining asymmetries in the cointegration and causality relations by using both banking and stock market proxies against economic growth for the South African economy.

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  • Andrew Phiri, 2015. "Asymmetric cointegration and causality effects between financial development and economic growth in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(4), pages 464-484, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:32:y:2015:i:4:p:464-484
    DOI: 10.1108/SEF-01-2014-0009
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    6. Khoza, Keorapetse & Thebe, Relebogile & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: A smooth transition regression (STR) analysis," MPRA Paper 73840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Maxwell Chukwudi Udeagha & Marthinus Christoffel Breitenbach, 2023. "Exploring the moderating role of financial development in environmental Kuznets curve for South Africa: fresh evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulations approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-52, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    South Africa; Developing economy; Economic growth; Financial development; Asymmetric causality; Threshold cointegration; C32; E51; E58; G21; G23; G28;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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