IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v42y2010i23p2941-2955.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of inflation uncertainty on interest rates: a nonlinear approach

Author

Listed:
  • Tolga Omay
  • Mubariz Hasanov

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the effects of inflation variability on short-term interest rates within a nonlinear smooth transition regression framework. The test results suggest that only the conditional mean of the inflation is a nonlinear process whereas the conditional variance is time variant but linear. Using the square root of conditional variance as a proxy for inflation risk, we estimate Fisher equation augmented with inflation risk. Although the estimated Fisher equations suggest that inflation risk reduces short-term interest rates, we find that the effects of inflation risk on interest rates are regime-dependent. Particularly, we find that the negative effects of inflation variability on nominal rates are greater in low-inflationary regimes when compared to high-inflationary regimes. On the other hand, it is found that both inflation and inflation uncertainty raise the expected inflation effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Tolga Omay & Mubariz Hasanov, 2010. "The effects of inflation uncertainty on interest rates: a nonlinear approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2941-2955.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:23:p:2941-2955
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840801964757
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840801964757
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840801964757?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling economic high-frequency time series with STAR-STGARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 291, Stockholm School of Economics.
    2. Chan Guk Huh, 1996. "Regime switching in the dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and innovations in nonborrowed reserves," International Finance Discussion Papers 536, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Su Zhou, 2013. "Nonlinearity and stationarity of inflation rates: evidence from the euro-zone countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 849-856, March.
    2. Andrew Phiri, 2015. "Asymmetric cointegration and causality effects between financial development and economic growth in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(4), pages 464-484, October.
    3. Tolga Omay, 2011. "The relationship between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties: Nonlinear Multivariate GARCH-M evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3006-3015.
    4. Tolga Omay & Reneé Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Inflation–growth nexus: evidence from a pooled CCE multiple-regime panel smooth transition model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 913-944, May.
    5. Phiri, Andrew, 2015. "Examining asymmetric effects in the South African Philips curve: Evidence from logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models," MPRA Paper 64487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Omay, Tolga & Iren, Perihan, 2019. "Behavior of foreign investors in the Malaysian stock market in times of crisis: A nonlinear approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 85-100.
    7. Afsin Sahin & Volkan Ulke, 2015. "Farkli Belirsizlik Duzeylerinde Faiz Oraninin Makroekonomik Degiskenlere Etkileri : Turkiye Uzerine Etkilesimli Vektor Otoregresif Modeli Uygulamasi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(1), pages 65-93.
    8. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    2. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard H. & Tai, Amanda P.J., 2008. "Testing for nonlinearity in mean and volatility for heteroskedastic models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 489-499.
    3. Philip Rothman & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 1999. "A Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between Money and Output," Working Papers 9913, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    4. Jan G. De Gooijer & Kurt Brännäs, 2004. "Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance: modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 155-171.
    5. Khim-Sen Liew & Kian-Ping Lim & Chee-Keong Choong, 2003. "On The Forecastability Of Asean-5 Stock Markets Returns Using Time Series Models," Finance 0307012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Stefan Reitz & Ulf Slopek, 2009. "Non‐Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(3), pages 270-283, August.
    7. Andrea Fracasso & Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, 2014. "International R&D Spillovers, Absorptive Capacity and Relative Backwardness: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 137-160, March.
    8. Das, Mahamitra & Kundu, Srikanta & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2019. "Mean and Volatility Spillovers between REIT and Stocks Returns A STVAR-BTGARCH-M Model," MPRA Paper 94707, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mubariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2008. "Nonlinearities in emerging stock markets: evidence from Europe's two largest emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(20), pages 2645-2658.
    10. Alessandra Amendola & Giuseppe Storti, 2002. "A non-linear time series approach to modelling asymmetry in stock market indexes," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 11(2), pages 201-216, June.
    11. Milas, Costas & Rothman, Philip, 2008. "Out-of-sample forecasting of unemployment rates with pooled STVECM forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-121.
    12. G. Dufrenot & E. Grimaud & E. Latil & V. Mignon, 2003. "Real exchange rate misalignment in Hungary: a fractionally integrated threshold model," THEMA Working Papers 2003-07, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    13. Areosa, Waldyr Dutra & McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2011. "Moment-based estimation of smooth transition regression models with endogenous variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(1), pages 100-111.
    14. Gilles Dufrenot & Laurent Mathieu & Valerie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2006. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 203-229.
    15. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    16. Giulio Cainelli & Andrea Fracasso & Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, 2015. "Spatial agglomeration and productivity in Italy: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94, pages 39-67, November.
    17. Gilles DUFRENOT & Elisabeth GRIMAUD & Eug=E9nie LATIL & Val=E9rie MIGNON, 2003. "Real exhange rate misalignment in Hungary: a fractionally integrated=20 threshold model," Econometrics 0309001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Westerhoff Frank H. & Reitz Stefan, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Asmara Jamaleh, 2002. "Explaining and forecasting the euro/dollar exchange rate through a non-linear threshold model," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 422-448.
    20. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2002. "A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 135-165, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:23:p:2941-2955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.