On The Forecastability Of Asean-5 Stock Markets Returns Using Time Series Models
AbstractThis study examines the forecastability of ASEAN-5 stock market returns using linear and non-linear time series models. Time series models with GARCH errors are also considered. Based on formal econometrics tests, this study shows that the behaviour of these returns do not follow random walk movement. Results of this study also reveal that all the estimated time series models, both linear and non-linear, have smaller out-of-sample forecast errors than the random walk model. These two findings robustly indicate that returns of ASEAN-5 stock markets do not follow random walk movement and are forecastable. Thus, this study can be taken as providing justification for the work of technical analysts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0307012.
Date of creation: 23 Jul 2003
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Random walk; Time series models; Autoregressive; Smooth Transition Autoregressive; GARCH; Forecasting; ASEAN-5 stock markets.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G - Financial Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-07-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2003-07-29 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-ECM-2003-08-01 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2003-07-29 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FIN-2003-07-29 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2003-07-29 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2003-07-29 (Risk Management)
- NEP-SEA-2003-07-29 (South East Asia)
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