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Monetary Variability and Monetary Variables in the Franc Zone

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  • S Coleman
  • M Karoglou

Abstract

Failure to detect or account for structural changes in economic modelling can lead to misleading policy inferences, which can be perilous, especially for the more fragile economies of developing countries. Using three potential monetary policy instruments (Money Base, M0, and Reserve Money) for 13 member-states of the CFA Franc zone over the period 1989:11-2002:09, we investigate the magnitude of information extracted by employing data-driven techniques when analyzing breaks in time-series, rather than the simplifying practice of imposing policy implementation dates as break dates. The paper also tests Granger's (1980) aggregation theory and highlights some policy implications of the results.

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File URL: http://www.economicissues.org.uk/Files/210Coleman.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Economic Issues in its journal Economic Issues.

Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 17-48

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Handle: RePEc:eis:articl:210coleman

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Web page: http://www.economicissues.org.uk
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  1. Caporale, Tony, 1993. "Monetary variability and real output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(2-3), pages 219-222.
  2. Fielding, David, 2004. "How Does Monetary Policy Affect the Poor? Evidence from the West African Economic and Monetary Union," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Capital controls, the dual exchange rate, and devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, February.
  5. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  6. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2002. "Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 579-600.
  7. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
  8. Hossain, A., 2005. "Granger-Causality Between Inflation, Money Growth, Currency Devaluation and Economic Growth in Indonesia, 1951-2002," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 45-68.
  9. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
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