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Breaking down the non-normality of stock returns

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  • Michail Karoglou

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the non-normality typically observed in daily stock-market returns could arise because of the joint existence of breaks and GARCH effects. It proposes a data-driven procedure to credibly identify the number and timing of breaks and applies it on the benchmark stock-market indices of 27 OECD countries. The findings suggest that a substantial element of the observed deviations from normality might indeed be due to the co-existence of breaks and GARCH effects. However, the presence of structural changes is found to be the primary reason for the non-normality and not the GARCH effects. Also, there is still some remaining excess kurtosis that is unlikely to be linked to the specification of the conditional volatility or the presence of breaks. Finally, an interesting sideline result implies that GARCH models have limited capacity in forecasting stock-market volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 16 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 79-95

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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:16:y:2010:i:1:p:79-95

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Related research

Keywords: stock returns; OECD countries; non-normality; breaks; GARCH;

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Cited by:
  1. S Coleman & M Karoglou, 2010. "Monetary Variability and Monetary Variables in the Franc Zone," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(2), pages 17-48, September.
  2. Michail Karoglou & Panicos Demetriades & Siong Law, 2011. "One date, one break?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 7-24, August.
  3. Menelaos Karanasos & Alexandros Paraskevopoulos & Faek Menla Ali & Michail Karoglou & Stavroula Yfanti, 2014. "Modelling Returns and Volatilities During Financial Crises: a Time Varying Coefficient Approach," Papers 1403.7179, arXiv.org.
  4. Bartosz Gębka & Michail Karoglou, 2013. "Is there life in the old dogs yet? Making break-tests work on financial contagion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 485-507, April.
  5. Efe Çağlar Çağli & Pinar Evrim Mandaci & Pinar Hakan Kahyaoğlu, 2011. "Volatility Shifts and Persistence in Variance: Evidence from the Sector Indices of Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research (IJESAR), Technological Educational Institute (TEI) of Kavala, Greece, vol. 4(3), pages 119-140, December.
  6. Michail Karoglou & Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2013. "Risk and Structural Instability in US House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 424-436, April.

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