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Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?

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  • Hatton, Timothy J.
  • Williamson, Jeffrey G.

Abstract

Summary Most observers appear to believe that Third World emigration pressure is on the rise. But history suggests that migration typically follows a bell shape, in which case it might be entering on the downward phase. This paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving emigration from the developing world to the United States since 1970. The results suggest that emigration pressure, determined largely by source country demographics, education, poverty, and migrant stock dynamics, has recently been abating. Projections into the future suggest that it may even decline, and that its composition will become much more African and much less Hispanic.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal World Development.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 20-32

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Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:20-32

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev

Related research

Keywords: Third World emigration development life cycle;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ruohong Cai & Shuaizhang Feng & Mariola Pytliková & Michael Oppenheimer, 2014. "Climate Variability and International Migration: The Importance of the Agricultural Linkage," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1418, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  2. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.

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