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The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?

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  • Timothy Hatton

Abstract

In the last 20 years, developed countries have struggled with what seemed to be an ever rising tide of asylum seekers, a trend that has now gone into reverse. This paper examines what happened and why. How have oppression, violence and economic conditions in origin countries shaped worldwide trends in asylum applications? And has the toughening of policy towards asylum seekers since 2001 reduced the numbers? What policies have been effective and which host countries have been most affected? This paper surveys the trends in asylum seeking since the 1980s and the literature that it has generated and it provides new regression estimates of the determinants of asylum applications up to the present. The key findings are first, that violence and terror can account for much of the variation across source countries and over time but it cannot fully explain the original surge in asylum applications during the 1980s. And second, while tougher policies did have a deterrent effect, they account for only about a third of the decline in applications since 2001.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 577.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:577

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Keywords: asylum; refugees; immigration policy;

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References

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  1. Timothy J. Hatton, 2005. "European Asylum Policy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 194(1), pages 106-119, October.
  2. Ralph Rotte & Michael Vogler, 2000. "The effects of development on migration: Theoretical issues and new empirical evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 485-508.
  3. Hartog, Joop & Zorlu, Aslan, 2005. "How Important Is Homeland Education for Refugees' Economic Position in The Netherlands?," IZA Discussion Papers 1753, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Asylum Recognition Rates in Western Europe - Their Determinants, Variation and Lack of Convergence," Labor and Demography 0312004, EconWPA, revised 02 Sep 2004.
  5. DeVoretz, Don J. & Pivnenko, Sergiy & Beiser, Morton, 2004. "The Economic Experiences of Refugees in Canada," IZA Discussion Papers 1088, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Timothy J. Hatton, 2004. "Seeking asylum in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 19(38), pages 5-62, 04.
  7. Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe," Labor and Demography 0311002, EconWPA, revised 18 Feb 2004.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Groundhog day: why the asylum problem is like the drug problem
    by Desmond Manderson, Professor in Law and the Humanities; ARC Future Fellow at Australian National University in The Conversation on 2013-08-16 21:29:17
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Cited by:
  1. Tim Hatton, 2012. "Asylum Policy in the EU: The Case for Deeper Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 660, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  2. Alessandra Casarico & Giovanni Facchini & Tommaso Frattini, 2012. "Spending More is Spending Less: Policy Dilemmas on Irregular Migration," Development Working Papers 330, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 27 Mar 2012.
  3. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2013. "‘Because She Never Let Them In’: Irish Immigration a Century Ago and Today," Working Papers 201319, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  4. Brian Bell & Stephen Machin & Francesco Fasani, 2010. "Crime and immigration: evidence from large immigrant waves," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28732, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  5. Alessandra Casarico & Giovanni Facchini & Tommaso Frattini, 2012. "What Drives Immigration Amnesties?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3981, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Hatton, Timothy J., 2012. "Refugee and Asylum Migration to the OECD: A Short Overview," IZA Discussion Papers 7004, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Brian Bell & Stephen Machin & Francesco Fasani, 2010. "Crime and Immigration: Evidence from Large Immigrant Waves," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1012, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  8. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2011. "Are Third World Emigration Forces Abating?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 20-32, January.
  9. Alessandra Casarico & Giovanni Facchini & Tommaso Frattini, 2012. "Spending more is spending less: on the desirability of enforcing migration," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012006, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  10. Tausch, Arno, 2012. "‚Getting Asylum Seekers into Employment‘? – Ein Allheilmittel für die Europäische Einwanderungspolitik?
    [‚Getting Asylum Seekers into Employment‘? – A panacea for European immigration
    ," MPRA Paper 40759, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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