IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v45y2011i4p682-695.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Network-based real option models

Author

Listed:
  • Chow, Joseph Y.J.
  • Regan, Amelia C.

Abstract

Building on earlier work to incorporate real option methodologies into network modeling, two models are proposed. The first is the network option design problem, which maximizes the expanded net present value of a network investment as a function of network design variables with the option to defer the committed design investment. The problem is shown to be a generalized version of the network design problem and the multi-period network design problem. A heuristic based on radial basis functions is used to solve the problem for continuous link expansion with congestion effects. The second model is a link investment deferral option set, which decomposes the network investment deferral option into individual, interacting link or project investments. This model is a project selection problem under uncertainty, where each link or project can be deferred such that the expanded net present value is maximized. The option is defined in such a way that a lower bound can be solved using an exact method based on multi-option least squares Monte Carlo simulation. Numerical tests are conducted with the classical Sioux Falls network and compared to earlier published results.

Suggested Citation

  • Chow, Joseph Y.J. & Regan, Amelia C., 2011. "Network-based real option models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 682-695, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:45:y:2011:i:4:p:682-695
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191-2615(10)00138-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Regis, Rommel G. & Shoemaker, Christine A., 2007. "Parallel radial basis function methods for the global optimization of expensive functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 514-535, October.
    2. Friesz, Terry L. & Mookherjee, Reetabrata & Yao, Tao, 2008. "Securitizing congestion: The congestion call option," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 407-437, June.
    3. Lo, Hong K. & Szeto, W.Y., 2009. "Time-dependent transport network design under cost-recovery," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 142-158, January.
    4. Chaisak Suwansirikul & Terry L. Friesz & Roger L. Tobin, 1987. "Equilibrium Decomposed Optimization: A Heuristic for the Continuous Equilibrium Network Design Problem," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 254-263, November.
    5. Snyder, Lawrence V. & Daskin, Mark S. & Teo, Chung-Piaw, 2007. "The stochastic location model with risk pooling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(3), pages 1221-1238, June.
    6. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1977. "The Valuation of American Put Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 449-462, May.
    7. Rommel G. Regis & Christine A. Shoemaker, 2007. "A Stochastic Radial Basis Function Method for the Global Optimization of Expensive Functions," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 497-509, November.
    8. Yin, Yafeng & Madanat, Samer M. & Lu, Xiao-Yun, 2009. "Robust improvement schemes for road networks under demand uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 470-479, October.
    9. Saphores, Jean-Daniel M. & Boarnet, Marlon G., 2006. "Uncertainty and the timing of an urban congestion relief investment.: The no-land case," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 189-208, March.
    10. Boyle, Phelim P., 1977. "Options: A Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 323-338, May.
    11. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    12. Trigeorgis, Lenos, 1991. "A Log-Transformed Binomial Numerical Analysis Method for Valuing Complex Multi-Option Investments," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 309-326, September.
    13. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    14. S Mudchanatongsuk & F Ordóñez & J Liu, 2008. "Robust solutions for network design under transportation cost and demand uncertainty," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(5), pages 652-662, May.
    15. Michael Garvin & Charles Cheah, 2004. "Valuation techniques for infrastructure investment decisions," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 373-383.
    16. Jia Shu & Chung-Piaw Teo & Zuo-Jun Max Shen, 2005. "Stochastic Transportation-Inventory Network Design Problem," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(1), pages 48-60, February.
    17. Ukkusuri, Satish V. & Patil, Gopal, 2009. "Multi-period transportation network design under demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 625-642, July.
    18. Byung Kim & Wonkyu Kim & Byung Song, 2008. "Sequencing and scheduling highway network expansion using a discrete network design model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(3), pages 621-642, September.
    19. Ivan Damnjanovic & Jennifer Duthie & S. Travis Waller, 2008. "Valuation of strategic network flexibility in development of toll road projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(9), pages 979-990.
    20. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    21. Yong Zhao & Kara Maria Kockelman, 2002. "The propagation of uncertainty through travel demand models: An exploratory analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 36(1), pages 145-163.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Amy M. & Li, Huanan, 2020. "Incorporating the impacts of climate change in transportation infrastructure decision models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 271-287.
    2. Mishra, Sabyasachee & Sharma, Sushant & Khasnabis, Snehamay & Mathew, Tom V., 2013. "Preserving an aging transit fleet: An optimal resource allocation perspective based on service life and constrained budget," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 111-123.
    3. Chow, Joseph Y.J. & Regan, Amelia C. & Ranaiefar, Fatemeh & Arkhipov, Dmitri I., 2011. "A network option portfolio management framework for adaptive transportation planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 765-778, October.
    4. Vodopivec, Neža & Miller-Hooks, Elise, 2017. "An optimal stopping approach to managing travel-time uncertainty for time-sensitive customer pickup," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 22-37.
    5. Sayarshad, Hamid R. & Chow, Joseph Y.J., 2015. "A scalable non-myopic dynamic dial-a-ride and pricing problem," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 539-554.
    6. Allahviranloo, Mahdieh & Chow, Joseph Y.J. & Recker, Will W., 2014. "Selective vehicle routing problems under uncertainty without recourse," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 68-88.
    7. Zheng, Shiyuan & Wang, Kun & Chan, Felix T.S. & Fu, Xiaowen & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2022. "Subsidy on transport adaptation investment-modeling decisions under incomplete information and ambiguity," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 103-129.
    8. Sayarshad, Hamid R. & Chow, Joseph Y.J., 2017. "Non-myopic relocation of idle mobility-on-demand vehicles as a dynamic location-allocation-queueing problem," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 60-77.
    9. Li, Zhi-Chun & Guo, Qian-Wen & Lam, William H.K. & Wong, S.C., 2015. "Transit technology investment and selection under urban population volatility: A real option perspective," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 318-340.
    10. Anny B. Wang & W. Y. Szeto, 2020. "Bounding the Inefficiency of the Reliability-Based Continuous Network Design Problem Under Cost Recovery," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 395-422, June.
    11. Zhang, Sizhe & Cardin, Michel-Alexandre, 2017. "Flexibility and real options analysis in emergency medical services systems using decision rules and multi-stage stochastic programming," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 120-140.
    12. Guo, Qianwen & Chen, Shumin & Sun, Yanshuo & Schonfeld, Paul, 2023. "Investment timing and length choice for a rail transit line under demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    13. Guo, Qian-Wen & Chen, Shumin & Schonfeld, Paul & Li, Zhongfei, 2018. "How time-inconsistent preferences affect investment timing for rail transit," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 172-192.
    14. Xiao, Yi-bin & Fu, Xiaowen & Oum, Tae H. & Yan, Jia, 2017. "Modeling airport capacity choice with real options," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 93-114.
    15. Yongxing Wang & Jun Bi & Chaoru Lu & Cong Ding, 2020. "Route Guidance Strategies for Electric Vehicles by Considering Stochastic Charging Demands in a Time-Varying Road Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-24, May.
    16. Dezhi Zhang & Jiehui Jiang & Shuangyan Li & Xiamiao Li & Qingwen Zhan, 2017. "Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph Y. J. Chow & Amelia C. Regan, 2011. "Real Option Pricing of Network Design Investments," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(1), pages 50-63, February.
    2. Andrea Gamba & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2007. "An Improved Binomial Lattice Method for Multi-Dimensional Options," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 453-475.
    3. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, April.
    4. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    5. In oon Kim & Bong-Gyu Jang & Kyeong Tae Kim, 2013. "A simple iterative method for the valuation of American options," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 885-895, May.
    6. Manuel Moreno & Javier Navas, 2003. "On the Robustness of Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) for Pricing American Derivatives," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 107-128, May.
    7. Dimitrakopoulos, Roussos G. & Abdel Sabour, Sabry A., 2007. "Evaluating mine plans under uncertainty: Can the real options make a difference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 116-125, September.
    8. Minqiang Li, 2010. "A quasi-analytical interpolation method for pricing American options under general multi-dimensional diffusion processes," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 177-217, July.
    9. Zhongkai Liu & Tao Pang, 2016. "An efficient grid lattice algorithm for pricing American-style options," International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 36-55.
    10. Chockalingam, Arun & Muthuraman, Kumar, 2015. "An approximate moving boundary method for American option pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(2), pages 431-438.
    11. Cassimon, D. & Engelen, P.J. & Thomassen, L. & Van Wouwe, M., 2007. "Closed-form valuation of American call options on stocks paying multiple dividends," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 33-48, March.
    12. Chow, Joseph Y.J. & Regan, Amelia C. & Ranaiefar, Fatemeh & Arkhipov, Dmitri I., 2011. "A network option portfolio management framework for adaptive transportation planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 765-778, October.
    13. Lars Stentoft, 2013. "American option pricing using simulation with an application to the GARCH model," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 5, pages 114-147, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Lee, Jung-Kyung, 2020. "A simple numerical method for pricing American power put options," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Leif Andersen & Mark Broadie, 2004. "Primal-Dual Simulation Algorithm for Pricing Multidimensional American Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1222-1234, September.
    16. Philipp N. Baecker, 2007. "Real Options and Intellectual Property," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-48264-2, December.
    17. Shun Chen & Shiyuan Zheng & Qiang Zhang, 2018. "Investment decisions under uncertainty on LNG-powered vessels for environmental compliance," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, December.
    18. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Marnay, Chris & Wiser, Ryan H., 2007. "Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 265-279, January.
    19. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    20. Gabriel J Power & Charli D. Tandja M. & Josée Bastien & Philippe Grégoire, 2015. "Measuring infrastructure investment option value," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 49-72, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:45:y:2011:i:4:p:682-695. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.