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Time preferences and overconfident beliefs: Evidence from germany

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  • Friehe, Tim
  • Pannenberg, Markus

Abstract

This paper investigates if and how time preferences are related to beliefs regarding one’s own future outcomes. We measure overconfident beliefs using the difference between an individual’s expected position and their observed percentile in the distribution of monthly gross wages one year after our survey. Our regression exercises link this bias measure to information about patience, conditioning on risk preferences, personality traits, cognitive ability, and the individual’s socio-economic status. On average, we find that greater patience is associated with lower overplacement in the future distribution of individual monthly gross wages.

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  • Friehe, Tim & Pannenberg, Markus, 2021. "Time preferences and overconfident beliefs: Evidence from germany," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:92:y:2021:i:c:s2214804320306947
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2020.101651
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Confidence; Beliefs; Time preferences; Wage distribution; Germany; SOEP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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