How to analyze the investment-uncertainty relationship in real option models?
AbstractThe real options tradition originally predicted a decreasing relationship between uncertainty and investment, through the positive effect of higher uncertainty on the trigger level for revenue relative to costs. An opposing effect on the probability of reaching the level has been identified, yielding a total effect with ambiguous sign. This paper makes three points. The âopposingâ effect is not always opposing. Systematic risk cannot generally be assumed to increase with volatility. A probability is not the best measure of investment. The sign of the total effect is again ambiguous. This ambiguity is illustrated, depending on specification of model and parameters.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Review of Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 14 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3-4 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170
Other versions of this item:
- Diderik Lund, 2003. "How to analyze the investment–uncertainty relationship in real option models?," EPRU Working Paper Series 03-17, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Financing, Investment, and Capacity
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
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