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The real options to shutdown, startup, and abandon: U.S. electricity industry evidence

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  • Fleten, Stein-Erik
  • Haugom, Erik
  • Ullrich, Carl J.

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the partially irreversible decisions to shutdown, startup, and abandon existing production assets under cash flow uncertainty and regulatory uncertainty. We use detailed information for 1121 individual electric power generators located in the U.S. for the period 2001–2009 and find strong evidence of real options effects. We find that both profitability uncertainty and regulatory uncertainty decrease the probability of shutdown. Regulatory uncertainty also decreases the probability of startup, but we find that cash flow uncertainty increases the probability of startup, especially for large generators.

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  • Fleten, Stein-Erik & Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2017. "The real options to shutdown, startup, and abandon: U.S. electricity industry evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.01.016
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yong & Gibson, Nathan & Biswas, Arpan & Li, An & Bashiri, Hamid & Sharifi, Erfaneh & Fuentes, Claudio & Hoyle, Christopher & Leon, Arturo S. & Skypeck, Christopher J., 2021. "Valuation of operational flexibility: A case study of Bonneville power administration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Marek Durica & Danuse Guttenova & Ludovit Pinda & Lucia Svabova, 2018. "Sustainable Value of Investment in Real Estate: Real Options Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Shimbar, A., 2021. "Environment-related stranded assets: An agenda for research into value destruction within carbon-intensive sectors in response to environmental concerns," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Comincioli, Nicola & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Menoncin, Francesco & Miniaci, Raffaele & Vergalli, Sergio, 2021. "Mothballing in a Duopoly: Evidence from a (Shale) Oil Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Haugom, Erik & Pichler, Alois & Ullrich, Carl J., 2020. "Structural estimation of switching costs for peaking power plants," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 23-33.
    6. Gorupec Natalia & Tiberius Victor & Brehmer Nataliia & Kraus Sascha, 2022. "Tackling uncertain future scenarios with real options: A review and research framework," The Irish Journal of Management, Sciendo, vol. 41(1), pages 69-88, July.
    7. Vu, Khuong & Hartley, Kris, 2022. "Effects of digital transformation on electricity sector growth and productivity: A study of thirteen industrialized economies," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Raquel J. Fonseca & Luísa Cunha, 2023. "Real options in health insurance decisions: the Portuguese ADSE system," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(6), pages 1-17, June.
    9. Kozlova, Mariia & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagspiel, Verena, 2019. "Investment timing and capacity choice under rate-of-return regulation for renewable energy support," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 591-601.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regulatory uncertainty; Real options; Retail competition; Stranded costs; Investment decisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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