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How to analyze the investment–uncertainty relationship in real option models?

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Author Info
Diderik Lund (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

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Abstract

The real options tradition originally predicted a decreasing relationship between uncertainty and investment, through the positive effect of higher uncertainty on the trigger level for revenue relative to costs. An opposing effect on the probability of reaching the level has been identified, yielding a total effect with ambiguous sign. This paper makes three points. The “opposing” effect is not always opposing. Systematic risk cannot generally be assumed to increase with volatility. A probability is not the best measure of investment. The sign of the total effect is again ambiguous. This ambiguity is illustrated, depending on specification of model and parameters.

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Paper provided by Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series EPRU Working Paper Series with number 03-17.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:kud:epruwp:03-17

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Keywords: investment; uncertainty; real options; stochastic control;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Investment Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Milonas, Nikolaos T & Henker, Thomas, 2001. "Price Spread and Convenience Yield Behaviour in the International Oil Market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 23-36, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gilbert E. Metcalf & Kevin A. Hassett, 1995. "Investment Under Alternative Return Assumptions: Comparing Random Walks and Mean Reversion," NBER Technical Working Papers 0175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lund Diderik, 1993. "The Lognormal Diffusion Is Hardly an Equilibrium Price Process for Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 235-241, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2003. "The effect of mean reversion on investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 377-396, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Working papers 3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Mark Funk, 2006. "Business cycles and research investment," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1775-1782, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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