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Finite Project Life and Uncertainty Effects on Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Gryglewicz, S.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Huisman, K.J.M.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

  • Kort, P.M.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper revisits the important result of the real options approach to investment under uncertainty, which states that increased uncertainty raises the value of waiting and thus decelerates investment. Typically in this literature projects are assumed to be perpetual. However, in today's economy firms face a fast-changing technology environment, implying that investment projects are usually considered to have a finite life. The present paper studies investment projects with finite project life, and we find that, in contrast with the existing theory, investments may be accelerated by increased uncertainty. It is shown that this particularly happens at low levels of uncertainty and when project life is short.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Gryglewicz, S. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2006. "Finite Project Life and Uncertainty Effects on Investment," Discussion Paper 2006-124, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:55153914-7cb5-4afc-8364-182179d99559
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    Cited by:

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    3. Sebastian Maier, 2021. "Re-evaluating natural resource investments under uncertainty: An alternative to limited traditional approaches," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 907-937, April.
    4. Lukas, Elmar & Thiergart, Sascha, 2019. "The interaction of debt financing, cash grants and the optimal investment policy under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(1), pages 284-299.
    5. Balter, Anne G. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2022. "Effects of creative destruction on the size and timing of an investment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    6. Qiuqi Wang & Yue Kuen Kwok, 2019. "Signaling game models of equity financing under information asymmetry and finite project life," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-38, March.
    7. Ni, Shawn & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Heterogeneous parameter uncertainty and the timing of investment during crisis," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-22.
    8. Baresa, Suzana & Bogdan, Sinisa & Ivanovic, Zoran, 2016. "Capital Investments And Financial Profitability," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 7(1), pages 49-59.
    9. Dandan Song & Zhaojun Yang, 2014. "Utility-Based Pricing, Timing and Hedging of an American Call Option Under an Incomplete Market with Partial Information," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 1-26, June.
    10. Yatsenko, Yuri & Hritonenko, Natali, 2017. "Machine replacement under evolving deterministic and stochastic costs," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 491-501.
    11. Djembissi, Bertrand, 2011. "Excessive risk taking and the maturity structure of debt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1800-1816, October.
    12. Yuri Yatsenko & Natali Hritonenko, 2016. "Asset replacement under improving operating and capital costs: a practical approach," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(10), pages 2922-2933, May.
    13. Elmar Lukas & Andreas Welling, 2012. "On the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: A Game Theoretic Real Option Approach," FEMM Working Papers 120030, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    14. M. Trojanowska & P. M. Kort, 2010. "The Worst Case for Real Options," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 709-734, September.
    15. Shibata, Takashi & Nishihara, Michi, 2010. "Dynamic investment and capital structure under manager-shareholder conflict," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 158-178, February.
    16. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2011. "Incomplete markets, ambiguity, and irreversible investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 909-921, June.
    17. Huberts, Nick F.D. & Rossi Silveira, Rafael, 2023. "How economic depreciation shapes the relationship of uncertainty with investments’ size & timing," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    18. Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2014. "On the investment–uncertainty relationship: A game theoretic real option approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 25-35.
    19. Huisman, Kuno & Thijssen, J.J.J., 2018. "On the Option Effects of Short-Time Work Arrangements," Other publications TiSEM 7b9fcc49-a06c-49bd-a005-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Finjord, Fredrik & Hagspiel, Verena & Lavrutich, Maria & Tangen, Marius, 2018. "The impact of Norwegian-Swedish green certificate scheme on investment behavior: A wind energy case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 373-389.
    21. Whalley, A. Elizabeth, 2011. "Optimal R&D investment for a risk-averse entrepreneur," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 413-429, April.
    22. Huisman, Kuno & Thijssen, J.J.J., 2018. "On the Option Effects of Short-Time Work Arrangements," Discussion Paper 2018-004, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; uncertainty; finite project length;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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