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The comovement between monetary and fiscal policy instruments during the post-war period in the U.S

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  • Vázquez, Jesús

Abstract

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 412-424

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:17:y:2008:i:3:p:412-424

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

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  1. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper & Hess Chung, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching," NBER Working Papers 10362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Monetary policy rules and regime shifts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 525-535.
  5. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1997. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Research Paper 9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January.
  7. Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/11, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  8. Denis Pelletier, 2004. "Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 230, Econometric Society.
  9. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  10. Den Haan, Wouter & Sumner, Steven, 2001. "The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 2801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. den Haan, Wouter J., 2000. "The comovement between output and prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-30, August.
  12. Carlo A. Favero & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 234, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  13. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  14. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
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