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Diffusion forecast for grid-tied rooftop solar photovoltaic technology under store-on grid scheme model in Sub-Saharan Africa: Government role assessment

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  • Mukisa, Nicholas
  • Zamora, Ramon
  • Lie, Tek Tjing

Abstract

Government support is crucial for the competitiveness and success of renewable energy market policies. As an advancement to the previously developed store-on grid (SoG) scheme, this study considered 14 countries to examine the government's role in facilitating the battery energy storage systems (BESS) under the SoG scheme. A methodology for evaluating the total government expenditure on the BESS to achieve the solar photovoltaic cumulative capacity forecasted by the Bass model and possible total greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions avoided was presented. Using a 15 years' timeline and cumulative capacity target of 500 MW, the Bass model forecasting results revealed that over 480 MW cumulative capacity would be achieved under the SoG scheme. The average present value of the total government expenditure on the BESS across the selected countries was about $ 47,154,052. Eswatini at $ 61,304,636 and Zimbabwe at $ 30,924,616 recorded the highest and lowest total government expenditure on the BESS, respectively. This is attributed mainly to the country's forecasted diffusion capacity at the peak point and duration to the inflection points. Furthermore, Zimbabwe with 19.99 MtCO2eq and Uganda with 2.79 MtCO2eq recorded the highest and least total GHG emissions avoided, respectively, attributed mainly to the country's grid emission factor.

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  • Mukisa, Nicholas & Zamora, Ramon & Lie, Tek Tjing, 2021. "Diffusion forecast for grid-tied rooftop solar photovoltaic technology under store-on grid scheme model in Sub-Saharan Africa: Government role assessment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 516-535.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:180:y:2021:i:c:p:516-535
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.08.122
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