Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The market versus the analyst: Biases and predictive ability

Contents:

Author Info

  • Carter, Richard B.
  • Strader, Troy J.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Using the end of the quiet period (QPX) after an IPO as a venue for testing, we examine the long-run predictive ability of analysts and the market. Not only do we find that the analysts are reasonably good at predicting returns for at least a year, we also find that the market in general is at least as good--even after adjusting for the analysts' recommendations. Separating the QPX market reaction into retail-dominated versus institutional-dominated - based on trade size - we find consistent evidence that only institutional-dominated reactions are positively related to longer-run return. When we examine 5-year survival prediction, we again find that only the institutional-dominated QPX reaction is positively related to survivability. There was no evidence that analysts were able to predict 5 years survival.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W5X-4S6P25V-1/2/b764a9274bdf52e1b99fab7030ed0b96
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 49 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 398-416

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:49:y:2009:i:2:p:398-416

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167

    Related research

    Keywords: Security analysts Initial public offerings Quiet period Long-run return;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Richard B. Carter & Frederick H. Dark & Ajai K. Singh, 1998. "Underwriter Reputation, Initial Returns, and the Long-Run Performance of IPO Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 285-311, 02.
    2. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. " Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-29, June.
    3. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    4. Barber, Brad M. & Lehavy, Reuven & McNichols, Maureen & Trueman, Brett, 2006. "Buys, holds, and sells: The distribution of investment banks' stock ratings and the implications for the profitability of analysts' recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 87-117, April.
    5. Huang, Roger D. & Stoll, Hans R., 1996. "Dealer versus auction markets: A paired comparison of execution costs on NASDAQ and the NYSE," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 313-357, July.
    6. Alexander Ljungqvist & Felicia Marston & William J. Wilhelm, 2006. "Competing for Securities Underwriting Mandates: Banking Relationships and Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 301-340, 02.
    7. Sugato Chakravarty, 2002. "Stealth-Trading: Which Traders' Trades Move Stock Prices?," Finance 0201003, EconWPA.
    8. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    9. Gale, D. & Chamley, C., 1992. "Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment," Papers 10, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    10. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R., 2000. "Uniformly least powerful tests of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 361-389, March.
    11. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-86.
    12. William Wilhelm & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2002. "IPO Pricing in the Dot-com Bubble," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-FE-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Jay Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," NBER Working Papers 8805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
    15. Welch, Ivo, 1992. " Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June.
    16. Loffler, Gunter & Panther, Patrick F. & Theissen, Erik, 2005. "Who knows what when? The information content of pre-IPO market prices," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 466-484, October.
    17. Malmendier, Ulrike & Shanthikumar, Devin, 2007. "Are small investors naive about incentives?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 457-489, August.
    18. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber, 1972. "Earnings Estimates and the Accuracy of Expectational Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(8), pages B409-B424, April.
    19. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, 02.
    20. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    21. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
    22. Handley, Kathleen Weiss & Lee, Charles M. C. & Seguin, Paul L., 1996. "The Marketing of Closed-end Fund IPOs: Evidence from Transactions Data," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 127-159, April.
    23. Daniel J. Bradley & Bradford D. Jordan & Jay R. Ritter, 2003. "The Quiet Period Goes out with a Bang," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 1-36, 02.
    24. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:49:y:2009:i:2:p:398-416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.