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The exceedance and cross-correlations between the gold spot and futures markets

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  • Ruan, Qingsong
  • Huang, Ying
  • Jiang, Wei

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic features of cross-correlations and exceedance correlations between COMEX gold spot and futures returns using the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) and a test for symmetrical exceedance correlation. First, we examine the cross-correlations both qualitatively and quantitatively by employing the cross-correlations test and the DCCA method. We find that the cross-correlations are significant for all lagged orders and are weakly persistent. Our results from a rolling sample test also show that some exogenous events can apparently affect the cross-correlations between gold spot and futures returns. Second, after employing the test statistic, our empirical results show that the exceedance correlations between spot and futures returns are both positive and symmetric, indicating that the two returns co-move in the same direction and that the correlations between them are symmetrical for the upper and lower of the returns. However, the results from the rolling sample show that occasional events can induce significant asymmetries of exceedance correlations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruan, Qingsong & Huang, Ying & Jiang, Wei, 2016. "The exceedance and cross-correlations between the gold spot and futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 463(C), pages 139-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:463:y:2016:i:c:p:139-151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.07.021
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    4. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Distributional predictability between commodity spot and futures: Evidence from nonparametric causality-in-quantiles tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 615-628.
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    8. Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Upward/downward multifractality and efficiency in metals futures markets: The impacts of financial and oil crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
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