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A study of correlations between crude oil spot and futures markets: A rolling sample test

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  • Liu, Li
  • Wan, Jieqiu
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    Abstract

    In this article, we investigate the asymmetries of exceedance correlations and cross-correlations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures markets. First, employing the test statistic proposed by Hong et al. [Asymmetries in stock returns: statistical tests and economic evaluation, Review of Financial Studies 20 (2007) 1547–1581], we find that the exceedance correlations were overall symmetric. However, the results from rolling windows show that some occasional events could induce the significant asymmetries of the exceedance correlations. Second, employing the test statistic proposed by Podobnik et al. [Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches, European Physics Journal B 71 (2009) 243–250], we find that the cross-correlations were significant even for large lagged orders. Using the detrended cross-correlation analysis proposed by Podobnik and Stanley [Detrended cross-correlation analysis: a new method for analyzing two nonstationary time series, Physics Review Letters 100 (2008) 084102], we find that the cross-correlations were weakly persistent and were stronger between spot and futures contract with larger maturity. Our results from rolling sample test also show the apparent effects of the exogenous events. Additionally, we have some relevant discussions on the obtained evidence.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 390 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 21 ()
    Pages: 3754-3766

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:390:y:2011:i:21:p:3754-3766

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    Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

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    Keywords: Crude oil spot and futures markets; Exceedance correlations; Asymmetries; Cross-correlations; Rolling sample test;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Liu, Li & Wan, Jieqiu, 2012. "The relationships between Shanghai stock market and CNY/USD exchange rate: New evidence based on cross-correlation analysis, structural cointegration and nonlinear causality test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(23), pages 6051-6059.
    2. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi, 2013. "Cross-correlations between Renminbi and four major currencies in the Renminbi currency basket," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1418-1428.
    3. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Zi-Yi, 2013. "Investigating the price discovery and risk transfer functions in the crude oil and gasoline futures markets: Some empirical evidence," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 220-228.
    4. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cheong, Chongcheul & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2013. "Intraday volatility spillovers between spot and futures indices: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1795-1802.
    5. Matsushita, Raul & Figueiredo, Annibal & Da Silva, Sergio, 2012. "A suggested statistical test for measuring bivariate nonlinear dependence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4891-4898.
    6. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong, 2014. "Cross-correlations between spot and futures markets of nonferrous metals," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 400(C), pages 20-30.

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