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Policy uncertainty spillovers and financial risk contagion in the Asia-Pacific network

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  • LI, Yang
  • Luo, Jingqiu
  • Jiang, Yongmu

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of policy uncertainties on the financial markets in the Asia-Pacific region using a complex network analysis. A new daily economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index was build using Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone data. The results show that China is the Asia-Pacific EPU network's center and the US stock market is the most important intermediary in the financial network. We also construct an uncertainty spillover network by combining the EPU and financial networks. The findings reveal that the US EPU and SPX indexes are the most important sources of uncertainties in the spillover network. The network dynamics show that during the US-China trade war, the correlations between the EPU and financial networks decreased significantly, while the COVID-19 outbreak has increased the combined network's density.

Suggested Citation

  • LI, Yang & Luo, Jingqiu & Jiang, Yongmu, 2021. "Policy uncertainty spillovers and financial risk contagion in the Asia-Pacific network," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:67:y:2021:i:c:s0927538x21000615
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101554
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    1. Zheng, Jinlin & Wen, Baoyu & Jiang, Yaohui & Wang, Xiaohan & Shen, Yue, 2023. "Risk spillovers across geopolitical risk and global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
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    3. Zhou, Yuqin & Liu, Zhenhua & Wu, Shan, 2022. "The global economic policy uncertainty spillover analysis: In the background of COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Wang, Yonglian & Wang, Lijun & Pan, Changchun & Hong, Songzhi, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and price pass-through effect of exchange rate in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Mike K. P. So & Jacky N. L. Chan & Amanda M. Y. Chu, 2022. "Dynamic Causality Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Risk and Oil Market Changes," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-11, May.
    6. SOUMA Wataru & Carolina Magda ROMA & GOTO Hiromitsu & IYETOMI Hiroshi & Irena VODENSKA, 2022. "Complex Global Interdependencies between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks Indices," Discussion papers 22028, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Chada, Swechha, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainties and institutional ownership in India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    8. Shivani Narayan & Dilip Kumar, 2023. "Systemic Risk Transmission from the United States to Asian Economies During the COVID-19 Period," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 22(1), pages 57-84, March.
    9. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Chen, Yajiao & Liu, Fang, 2022. "The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Qiao, Xingzhi & Zhu, Huiming & Zhang, Zhongqingyang & Mao, Weifang, 2022. "Time-frequency transmission mechanism of EPU, investor sentiment and financial assets: A multiscale TVP-VAR connectedness analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty (EPU); Financial risk; Spillover effects; Complex network analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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