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The Effect of Covid-19 Outbreak on Turkish Diesel Consumption Volatility Dynamics

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  • Ertugrul, H. Murat
  • Güngör, B. Oray
  • Soytas, Ugur

Abstract

We analyze the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on volatility dynamics of the Turkish diesel market. We observe that a high volatility pattern starts around mid-April, 2020 and reaches its peak on 24/05/2020. This is due to the government imposed weekend curfews and bans on intercity travels. Two policy suggestions are provided. First is a temporary rearrangement of profit margins of dealers and liquid fuel distributors; and, second is a temporary tax regulation to compensate lost tax revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Ertugrul, H. Murat & Güngör, B. Oray & Soytas, Ugur, 2020. "The Effect of Covid-19 Outbreak on Turkish Diesel Consumption Volatility Dynamics," MPRA Paper 110166, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110166
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    6. Wang, Hui & Shen, Huayu & Tang, Xiaoyi & Wu, Zuofeng & Ma, Shuming, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and firm risk taking," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-364.
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    9. Güngör, Bekir Oray & Ertuğrul, H. Murat & Soytaş, Uğur, 2021. "Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    10. Sui, Bo & Chang, Chun-Ping & Jang, Chyi-Lu & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Analyzing causality between epidemics and oil prices: Role of the stock market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 148-158.
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    13. Daniel Stefan Armeanu & Stefan Cristian Gherghina & Jean Vasile Andrei & Camelia Catalina Joldes, 2023. "Evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model on the asymmetric influence of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy markets," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1433-1470, August.
    14. Kai-Hua Wang & Chi-Wei Su, 2021. "Asymmetric Link Between COVID-19 and Fossil Energy Prices," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-5.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diesel Consumption; ARIMA Models; ARCH Family Models; Covid-19 pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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